Highlights:

• “Of course these are predictive models so we have to take them with a grain of salt here. And also this is of course predicated on all of us going out to vote.”
• “Opinion polls are completely obsolete when it comes to the predictions of the Primary Model… Norpoth’s model is the only one that has for more than a hundred years selected the winner of virtually all presidential campaigns which is 25 of the last 27 elections.”
• “This Democracy Institute poll is obviously huge given how they were able to accurately predict the Brexit vote and Trump in 2016.”
• Trafalgar Group specializes in polling Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota. They were right in predicting that Trump would win the Rust Belt in 2016.”

Timestamps:

• [02:32] The predictive models of election forecasts
• [03:37] Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model
• [05:53] President Trump and Biden’s votes in the primaries
• [07:26] The Democracy Institute prediction
• [08:37] The Trafalgar Group

Resources:

• The Primary Model
• Democracy Institute
• Trafalgar Group
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