This election cycle has been cruel to those in the prediction business. The race is simply too

volatile. The candidates are too unpredictable. The external circumstances are too bizarre.

WikiLeaks collapsing at the 9-11 memorial, this stuff would be rejected as straining the

bounds of credulity by any decent fiction editor, which means it's difficult not to fall into the trap

of believing that the immediate is the permanent. So six weeks ago, conventional wisdom, and this was my opinion too, was Donald Trump was absolutely going to get crushed. After all, he had demonstrated no capacity to control himself. He had appointing the alt-right pandering new head of Breitbart to his campaign. He was trailing by double digits in a bevy of swing states. Then WikiLeaks started dumping material, and Hillary continued to flail over her emails, and then she went completely absent from the campaign trail, and then she called half of Trump's supporters deplorables, and then she died on camera. And Trump, meanwhile, began using a teleprompter, and somebody changed his Twitter password, and they duct taped his mouth shut at headquarters, and everything looked better. Suddenly's got all the momentum, and he's got a bunch of positive polls to boot. We'll tell you about those in a little while. But while Trump recovered from his worst showing a few weeks back, there's a reason Hillary Clinton might not recover. She actually has to stop being Hillary Clinton. So Trump had to stop being Trump in order to gain in the polls. Hillary has to stop being Hillary in order to gain in the polls. But it was easier for Trump to stop being Trump. That's because Trump was defined in the public mind as a borderline nut job, a crazy guy willing to say or do anything, a wild man. To stop being Trump merely required him to start reading from a script. So like Shia LeBuff, he got on message during the filming and saved his actual cannibalism

for the off hours.

For Hillary, the problem runs deeper. People think she's corrupt and dishonest. Not crazy. Corrupt and dishonest. That's mainly because she's corrupt and dishonest. To stop being Hillary, she has to stop being corrupt and dishonest. It's easier to feign sobriety and decency than it is to feign truthfulness.

Even when Hillary tells the truth these days, it still sounds like she's lying, and there's no way for her to escape herself. This is the cruel reality of politics. Political standards operate exactly like personal standards. If you have a family member who's an alcoholic, homeless person, and if he drives out and goes to a halfway house, he's a success now to you. He's had a great week. If you have another relative who's a vice president at a bank makes a million bucks a year, and he blows 15 grand in Vegas, he's a giant failure that week. Objectively, the alcoholic ranks lower on the humans you'd trust with your children's scale than the VP of Chase Manhattan, probably, but you're holding them to different standards because this is what we all do. The same thing is true for Trump.

If he acts like a rational human, he's won. But Hillary has to overcome her serious trust issues. And as Ted Cruz learned,

it's really, really hard to shake the untrustworthy label once somebody has applied it,

even if you're not actually untrustworthy, which means that Hillary has a serious lasting problem here. She can't just stop being Hillary. Trump could stop

being Trump long enough, maybe, to make it to the White House. I'm Ben Shapiro. This is The Ben Shapiro show.

Okay, so first of all, we have a lot to get to today, like tons to get to today. We'll get to the mailbag later on in the show. We have an epic stuff I hate segment coming up, and we're going to talk about everything from Hillary's Health Records to New Gingrich saying some pretty ridiculous things on national TV. We'll get to all of that in just a moment. But first, we have to say hello to our friends over at theTracker.com.

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today so i want to start off with continuing questions about hillary's health so hillary finally releases

a letter from her physician by the way harambi has also released a letter from his physician says that

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