Highlights:

• “Biden’s lead has completely collapsed, which of course, is perfectly consistent with his non-campaign.”
• “Black voters overwhelmingly want more police, not less. They want more law enforcement, not less. And while yes, they are more sympathetic to the concerns of BLM, they’re emphatically not sympathetic with rioters and looters.”
• “Trump is more likely to win in 2020 than he was in 2016 for two reasons.”
• “President Trump has been setting new records for incumbent seeking re-election.”

Timestamps:

• [03:23] Rasmussen’s method of polling and Trump’s standings
• [05:05] On the Democracy Institute poll and the aggregate polling
• [06:33] Biden’s lead collapsing and his non-campaign
• [08:24] The political consequences of the riots and the sentiments of the black voters
• [10:32] The Primary Model of polling and its prediction on the 2020 election
• [13:02] Two reasons why Trump is more likely to win 2020 than he was in 2016

Resources:

• Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion and Voting O MAR WASOW, Princeton University
• Helmut Norpoth’s ‘Primary Model’
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