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Michael Covel's Trend Following

Ep. 1359: Technical Analysis is Mostly Bullshit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

Michael Covel

Investing, Business

4.6730 Ratings

🗓️ 6 October 2025

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Please enjoy my monologue Technical Analysis is Mostly Bullshit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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I’m MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I’m proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

To start? I’d like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can’t get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms:
Twitter: @covel
Facebook: @trendfollowing
LinkedIn: @covel
Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

So I caught a post on X. It was an image, a book cover image, and it says, this book will

0:07.6

blow your mind. And the title, technical analysis is mostly bullshit, why flipping a coin is a better

0:15.1

strategy than using technical analysis in the financial stock and 4X markets by Tim Tim Morris. Now that is a title that I can relate to,

0:26.0

for sure. I've not read the book. I don't know Tim. If anyone knows Tim, please have him send me a book.

0:34.1

I'd love to take a look at it. And with that cover alone, I'm sure we can do an interesting

0:40.4

interview. But I replied to the post on X, and I said, predictive or reactive technical analysis.

0:48.8

Now, that's taking me back a long time, because when I was working on my first book that came out in 2004,

0:57.4

the first edition of Trend Following, there was a big issue that I had to write about.

1:02.9

And no one else had ever written about it, which is these two forms of technical analysis.

1:10.2

And I label these two forms predictive and reactive. So that was the

1:15.5

question I asked to this post. And somebody else replied, hey, Grock, please explain the difference.

1:22.7

Fair enough. That makes me realize it's 21 years later and not everybody has learned the same

1:31.6

things that I learned at the same time all those years ago. Time marches on. New people come

1:37.2

along, new generations, and everybody is facing the issue of how do I understand what's real,

1:45.5

what's not real, what's bullshit, what's not bullshit.

1:47.1

So this guy asked for an explanation, an AI explanation of what I met.

1:53.5

And Grok replied, predictive technical analysis aims to forecast future price movements

1:59.7

using patterns, indicators, or models to anticipate

2:04.6

trends or reversals before they haven't. Reactive technical analysis, on the other hand, responds

2:09.6

to confirmed market actions, like entering a trade after a breakout or trend confirmation

2:15.6

without trying to predict. Reactive approaches, such as trend following, emphasize adapting to what the market does rather than guessing.

2:25.3

Hey, that's a fair description. That's essentially what I wrote in my book, Trend Following, the first edition, in 2004.

...

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