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The Dividend Cafe

Energy, Oil, and 2023

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Estate Planning, Macro Economics, Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy, Wealth Management, Investing, Retirement Planning, Business

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 17 February 2023

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Link - https://bahnsen.co/3IxtjXf

Since the new calendar year began just about six weeks ago oil prices are basically flat, having started right around $80/barrel and still sitting now right around the same level.  The energy sector indices are all up on the year, somewhere around +1%, so nowhere near the level, the market is up year-to-date, but up nicely nonetheless.  It's not been a rally mode, but it's not been a sell-off, either.

Yet there is a lot going on under the surface.  One can be forgiven for being suspicious of the idea that both the commodity side and public equity side can stay flattish and benignly boring for long.

My goal in this week's Dividend Cafe is to update our macro perspective on the energy sector and offer some correct practical suggestions around investing in it.  It's a little economic, a little political, a little global, and a lot of fun.  But you knew that already ...  So let's jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.6

Well, hello and welcome to the Dividend Cafe. I am excited for a Friday discussion on energy.

0:22.7

And we have covered a number of topics this year

0:27.6

that I think are prominent economic considerations

0:31.4

in the current state of markets.

0:34.4

We've looked at the recession scenarios.

0:37.9

We've obviously talked about the inflation deflation debate.

0:41.6

There's plenty of Fed and interest rate stuff out there.

0:45.4

And then last week was a broader discussion of where dividend growth investing fits into the kind of current paradigm, as well as the ongoing paradigm that we expect and believe

0:59.2

in macroeconomically.

1:01.3

And yet in the weeds of this, in the both short-term and longer-term scenarios, we have

1:08.1

an ongoing interest in the subject of energy. First of all, we care about the

1:14.1

concept of U.S. energy independence. We recognize that energy has profound impacts to other

1:21.7

aspects of the market, both in the sense that higher energy costs represent a higher input to much of the entire economy,

1:30.2

both for producers and consumers.

1:33.0

We recognize that lower energy costs could be reflective of weakening demand conditions.

1:42.0

There are, of course, supply issues with energy that may be relevant to geopolitics.

1:49.7

So energy touches a lot of things, and a lot of things touch energy. And then from an investor

1:55.1

standpoint, we care because of our own exposures that we both have and want to have, that are both, you know, real and that are

2:03.6

theoretical or hypothetical for the future.

2:07.6

So when we talk about the current state of energy, let me give you a little context.

2:12.6

Everyone, I believe, is aware that it was the highest performing sector in the market last year.

...

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