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Hidden Forces

Ending the Iran War: a New Balance of Power in the Middle East | Hamidreza Azizi

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Business, Government

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 18 June 2026

⏱️ 55 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 483 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hamidreza Azizi — expert on Iranian foreign policy and international security, and author of The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel, and the Struggle for the Middle East — about the evolution of the US-Israeli war against Iran since the early weeks of Operation Epic Fury, the contours of the emerging peace process, and the broader transformation of the Middle Eastern order in its wake.

The first hour picks up from Azizi's previous appearance and traces how the war has developed: the transformation of Iran's leadership following the assassination of Ali Khamenei and the consolidation of power within the IRGC, the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran, whether Iran's demonstrated control over the Strait of Hormuz has negated its need for a nuclear weapon, the role of Hezbollah and Lebanon as the most volatile variable in any lasting peace arrangement, and an honest accounting of what Iran has lost — and why those losses, not just its leverage, are driving Tehran to the negotiating table.

The second hour turns to the broader regional and geopolitical consequences of the conflict. They examine whether the Islamic Republic's ruling mandate has fundamentally shifted and what that means for its relationship with the United States going forward, how Netanyahu faces elections with a war record that looks nothing like the total victory he promised, and how Trump's willingness to negotiate with Iran without Israeli participation has forced a reckoning with the limits of that alliance. They also discuss what a new Middle Eastern order looks like in the face of a potential US strategic withdrawal or retrenchment — defined less by competing visions than by fluid, transactional balance-of-power dynamics — before closing with China: what Iran's foreign minister's recent comments about a new era of cooperation between Beijing and Tehran mean in practice, how China's behavior during the war signals a qualitative shift in its strategic calculus, and what three scenarios could cause the current peace process to collapse before a comprehensive deal is reached.

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Episode Recorded on 06/17/2026

Transcript

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0:00.0

What's up, everybody? My name is Dmitra Kaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces,

0:05.8

a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to challenge consensus

0:11.8

narratives and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

0:17.6

My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Hamidreza Azizzi, an expert on Iranian foreign

0:22.9

policy and the author of The Axis of Resistance, Iran, Israel, and the struggle for the Middle

0:29.7

East. We spent the first hour of our conversation today picking up where Hamidreza and I left

0:34.8

off when he was last on the podcast, only a few weeks into

0:38.3

the commencement of Operation Epic Fury. We discussed the transformation of Iran's governance

0:43.5

structure following the assassination of its supreme leader, Ali Hamini, the contours of the

0:49.1

memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran, and how it compares to the JCPOA signed by

0:56.0

Obama in 2015. The question of whether Iran still needs a nuclear weapon at all or whether

1:01.7

demonstrated control over the Strait of Hormuz has become its functional equivalent. The role of

1:07.0

Hezbollah and Lebanon is the most volatile variable in any lasting peace arrangement

1:12.0

and an honest accounting of what Iran has lost in this war, and why those losses, not just

1:18.2

its leverage, are what have driven Tehran to the negotiating table.

1:22.3

The second hour turns to the broader regional and geopolitical consequences of what has transpired over the last few

1:29.0

months. We deepen our discussion about the changing nature of the Iranian regime and what that

1:34.3

means for its relationship with the United States and other countries in the region

1:38.1

before moving to a series of conversations about Israel, the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, and China. We discussed Netanyahu's

1:46.1

political future, the future of the U.S. Israeli alliance, the implications for Saudi Arabia and other

1:51.5

Gulf states, along with their financial inflows and their attractiveness as destinations for

1:56.4

wealthy expats and human capital, and conclude with a discussion about China, its ambitions

...

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