Later this morning, we'll get the economic version of what the theater world might call an out-of-town tryout.

I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The ADP payroll company counts up the paychecks it processes for a reading on the strength of the job market,

ahead of the official report that comes out later. The prediction is the June tally will come in nearly three times higher than in May. We'll get the report shortly. Meanwhile, another measure shows the job market treading water. It's about churn. Do we have the confidence to leave and take a different job? Marketplaces Justin Ho goes deeper.

Job churn can tell us a lot about how easy it is to find a job. For instance, if the quits

rate is high, it's a sign people feel comfortable quitting because they see plenty of other

opportunities. When it's low, it indicates workers are more apt to stay put because they don't

see that many opportunities out there.

Nancy Vandenhouten is lead economist at Oxford Economics.

The quits rate and the hiring rate have been trending lower for more than three years now.

Van Houtten says while that is concerning, it's not yet a red flag.

You know, the low hiring rate has not alarmed us as much as it would otherwise because layoffs remain low.

Layoffs remain low because employers are nervous to let go of workers, says Bill Adams,

chief economist at Comerica Bank.

Likely because of all the difficulty that they experienced in the pandemic and post-pandemic period

and getting back to being fully staffed.

Adam says all of the uncertainty around tariff policy is also making it harder for businesses

and workers to make any decisions.

That's likely a contributor to the low level of hires from employers' perspective

and to the low level of job quitting from workers' perspective.

In other words, workers and employers are simply waiting to see how the broader economy shakes

out. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace. The Labor Department's big hiring and unemployment reports are due

tomorrow morning, unusual for a Thursday, but the first Friday of this month is a holiday.

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