Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken

Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.3 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 18 March 2026

⏱️ 15 minutes

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Summary

Goldman Sachs Research’s Kamakshya Trivedi analyzes the market’s reaction to the conflict in Iran and the case for emerging markets. This episode was recorded on March 12, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	It's been a wild year for markets, with risky assets performing strongly through February,
0:10.0	but reversing much of their gains as oil prices spiked in response to the Iran conflict.
0:16.0	So where do markets go from here?
0:18.0	I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges. Joining me here in London is Kamakshed
0:22.4	Treveti, chief foreign exchange and emerging market strategist in Goldman Sachs research. Kamakshah, welcome back to the
0:28.2	program. Thank you, Alison. It's a pleasure to be back. Obviously, it's a very uncertain time for markets,
0:34.0	so we have a lot to talk about. First, just get us up to speed on how markets are
0:38.9	digesting the developments in the Middle East. It is a very uncertain time and lots going on.
0:44.7	So I would make three high-level observations. First, I think the market is pricing in a higher
0:50.9	inflation shock in response to the spike in energy prices that you've seen as a result of the
0:56.9	conflict. You see that in the way rates curves have moved up, generally places that were pricing
1:03.4	cuts, central banks that were priced to cut rates. You've seen those cuts come out, places that were
1:09.2	priced to be on hold. You've seen more hikes and priced into those places.
1:13.2	So the UK, the US, where we were expecting to see cuts, the market is pricing fewer cuts there.
1:20.0	It's pricing higher inflation overall.
1:22.5	I think the second thing that is quite striking through these last couple of weeks is that things that people
1:29.4	had on as hedges for portfolios has, broadly speaking, not worked. So long duration, people being
1:36.3	long interest rates, I think that hasn't really performed. People got comfortable with long
1:41.1	gold positions. Those haven't really performed. The Swiss franc was
1:45.7	another popular geopolitical hedge. That didn't really perform. And so generally, it's been quite a
1:50.7	painful period for portfolios in part because those hedges haven't worked. And then the third
1:56.4	and final thing I would say is that while equities broadly have moved lower, there hasn't really
	...

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