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PFF Fantasy Football Podcast

Emergency pod: Julio Jones trade

PFF Fantasy Football Podcast

Fantasy Football

Sports, Nfl, Fantasy, Football, Fantasy Sports, Fantasy Football, Betting

4.72.2K Ratings

🗓️ 6 June 2021

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Host Ian Hartitz is here on a Sunday to break down the mega Julio trade. Still an elite WR: all 32 NFL teams are better with than without Jones. With that said: fantasy football is about chasing volume, so there are plenty of implications to go around. Ian already loved Ryan Tannehill as the best late-round QB option; that point holds more true than ever today. It's still AJB WR1 szn, although the chances of it being AJB THE WR1 szn seem slim. Continue to trust Julio as a borderline WR1, while Ridley deserves to be in the conversation as a true top-five option at the position. Ian closes things out with thoughts on Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage, Anthony Firkser and more.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to TFF Bansley football podcast. I'm your host, Ian Hartitz. And today, my goodness, it is Julio Jones trade day. Everybody I unfortunately was the mark when I said that we should not be marks and expect him to get traded.

0:21.0

The Falcons have done what I thought was the unthinkable traded arguably V if not D top two wide receiver of the past decade. So the return second round pick a fourth round pick Titans are also getting the Falcons six round pick in 2023 as the fourth thing. So more or less the Falcons are getting a second round pick the Titans are getting Julio freaking Jones.

0:42.0

So we talked about this on previous podcasts where again all 32 teams in the league are better with Julio Jones and without it's too bad to Falcons couldn't figure out what to keep them because hey, even if he's not the same guy that was averaging over three hours per out run and generally just taking over the damn league for the better part of 2010s.

1:01.0

We're still looking at anybody's idea of a true top five worst case top 10 wide receiver just last year, we had 84 wide receivers with at least 50 targets Julio was 11th and PFF receiving grade, tied to 15th and years per catch, six and wide receiver rating.

1:16.0

I think most importantly, fourth and yards per out run. This is one of my favorite metrics we have at PFF because you know it's just telling you it's taking the largest sample we have routes and the most just indicative thing of future performance and I guess just being a good wide receiver yards and with that in mind.

1:32.0

Last year only the Montet Adams Justin Jefferson and Mr. AJ Brown were more efficient than Jones on a per out basis so even if Julio again is not same world beater we saw you know from 20 kind of 13 the 2016 17 range even 18 God this guy is being so good we're so long even if he's not quite that guy we're still looking at one of the best wide receivers in the league.

1:54.0

So with that said I do have basically nine 10 not nine or 10 I go at nine key fancy football takeaways from this movie the first one which I've said even before this trade Ryan Tannenau is the best late round QB available at the moment.

2:07.0

If you've been listening to fancy files podcast I came into my right is Patrick article wanting to call him my favorite late round QB nope it was always been Ryan Tannenau coming in as the QB 16 over underdog he's been the QB 10 and fancy points for game over the past two years I believe he finished 2020 as the overall QB seven he's got the rushing floor he's got a J Brown now he's got Julio freaking Jones and what we got remember people is that as much as the Titans want to be a running offense and they will be there can you see going to get fed only the rate.

2:36.0

Only the Raiders were in the Titans same strategy I believe they were actually tied for first in terms of largest ranking difference and points for game last year and points for game allowed so you know similar to the sea hawks the Titans can talk about one to run the ball all they want when you kind of look at who they're going to be having on the defensive side of the field I just don't really think that you know it's a situation where they're going to be all that happy about their chances of run the football a lot of shootouts probably coming again to Tennessee and with Tannenau he's still in the QB one conversation with me I've behind Joe Burrow behind the back of the

3:06.0

high Tom Brady ahead of Matthew Stafford ahead of Matt Ryan had a Baker Mayfield right there in my two three with a mix of upside with a demonstrated floor so Ryan Tannenau was already my favorite late round quarterback probably going to lose that you know positioning with him I'd expect him to kind of move up and kind of join that borderline water see for one tier that I was just talking about either way Ryan Tannenau nothing other than a massive winner from this trade dare can remains locked ends a top five fancy RB I think it helps a little bit you know defense is obviously on the B.

3:36.0

I think we'll stack the box even as well as they could last year on Cory Davis is there only running back so I take ahead of Henry Christian McCaffrey down on cook and say quam bark Lee at the moment I know we want to run back to the catch passes there canary has proved that he's a walking talking exception to most things that we thought were possible with an NFL running back. Unfortunately people is paying me to say it's still a J. B. Why do you see for one season that's good but the chance of it being the why do you see for one season basically gone and with Jones in the picture no we're not moving age.

4:06.0

Now the why does he go on conversation he still like the amount available targets in this offense is just insane only the lions and jaguars have more available targets compared to he was on the roster in 2020 prepared to 2021 and when you look at it from that route like who you can still come in get over 100 targets and we can expect a J. B. to even see more opportunities and he had last year the issue is we're just no longer seeing that you know borderline erotic you know 150 160 targets ceiling so because of that I'm putting guys like Tyrone

4:36.0

and Harry Kill stuff on digs the entrepreneurs Michael Thomas and Ken Allen ahead of a J Brown purely because of this potential volume issue AJ Brown I think is arguably better than each of those receivers we're talking about some great guys so if you want to disagree with me there that's fine but he's in the same level in terms of efficiency in terms of just on field ability the problem is he's now in the longer in that level when it comes to target so for me I think it's a little more of like okay where do you want to put a J. B. among the likes of the K. McCaff Justin Jefferson and the

5:06.0

Calvin Ridley, who actually I think deserves to be ahead of AJB at the moment.

5:09.9

So we'll talk a little more about him later.

5:12.0

Just realize AJB, unfortunately, we're back to treating him as the wide receiver one that could be the wide receiver one with a bit more consistent volume.

5:20.7

I think Julio stays steady as a borderline wide receiver one.

5:23.6

I'm not really adjusting him at the moment.

5:24.9

I had him as my wide receiver 14.

5:26.8

I had a deante Johnson, the head of Alan Robinson, had the Buck News and Rams wide receivers.

5:31.1

And it's just because of those available targets, I think he's going to be fine.

5:34.4

No, we're probably not going to see Julio flirting with 150 targets much more anytime soon.

...

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