What is up everybody welcome back to the prop cast happy hour on the player profiler radio network.

It is super wild card weekend and we're here with Dario offstein the head of analytics at play a profiler you can find them on Twitter at Dario offstein you just got out of a show.

Now we're doing another show what's going on my brother are you having a good Friday staying busy.

Yeah I mean over here still still the morning I feel like I woke up when straight into one show going straight into another one like over here we're live where we're rolling with with week 19 I guess it is.

I'm excited week 19 super wild card weekend we just you know had a little pre show in the background talking about.

The strengths of these teams the weaknesses of these teams and and just honestly all the rematches like you said there's three divisional rematches that'll be a third match up and then the rest of these guys.

Dallas and Tampa play back in week one those last time Tampa looked competent and then Minnesota the Giants played just a few weeks ago in the white out Minnesota and the charges Jacksonville Jacksonville went to LA and that's kind of what I think started the whole kind of Jacksonville feel in 2022 was going out there and upsetting them we talked about that back in whatever week for I think it was.

But I think it's going to be a great weekend like you said though I think we're going to weed out a lot of teams that don't really belong in here Miami but.

But yeah it's going to be a great week to the prop guest happy hour we're going to start out with some props and we're going to finish off talking about our picks for this weekend's games alright Dario start us off hot what is your third favorite prop for the wild card weekend so you were roasting the dolphins a second ago and i'm going to go ahead to that game I think that Tyrie kill his prop on underdog right now 61 61 and a half yards and he's gone under this number in all.

All three of Skyler Thompson starts for the dolphins he's also gone under this number in one out of two games against the bills so basically if you look at the split that they're going to be heading into against the bills with Skyler Thompson at quarterback it does seem to line up pretty pretty badly for Tyrie kill I think that the bills secondary is going to be able to handle him and and strategize around him and then they're going to get enough pressure on Thompson I mean the first time.

The Thompson's first start was was of course against the jet so that was a tough secondary Tyrie going to have 32 air yards these last two starts he's had more air yards 149 and 80 but he's only converted those 220 some air yards into 78 receiving yards combined between the two games so I think that's pretty pretty abysmal for for Tyrie kills crossbacks obviously this is a very low prompt for his talent level but I think that.

That concern with Tyrie kill of him getting you a 50 yard bomb is is really diminished with the below far below average quarter backing and I just think the dolphins are going to be outmaned in this game they also probably aren't going to have her he most dirt so I think they're just going to struggle to move the ball and keep possession this could.

I mean this could easily turn into a game like we saw last year on wildcard weekend where the bills did not punt on the patriots and they just held the ball the whole game and I don't think that this is a good game environment for Tyrie kill I mean 61 and a half it's not you know it's not my favorite under it's you know like I said it's my third favorite prop of the day but I think that Tyrie kill under 61 and a half feels like.

I have a lean that way on the under.

I like it this week because I took the over last week as you remember 67 and a half because I thought you know it is what it is scar Thompson can't be that bad can he he's going to be able to get the ball to Tyrie kill at least like you get the ball in Tyrie

and he should be able to you know he's shifty enough he's he's him so and he ends up with like I think 30 23 or something like that 23 33 whatever it was against the jets and I was just like this is you got to be kidding me but now you look

back the last three games 67 and five targets.

I'm sold I mean I I don't think like you know when you enter the playoffs usually you need to have multiple you know at least two two weapons so it's like you look at Minnesota and they're like all right there's Jefferson out there so they take Jefferson away can you go to somebody else so

who the Buffalo who's Buffalo going to key on is going to be Hills going to be wall what's it going to be we'll see comes come what Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

But today is why it's going to be playing this game he played the last game that they played and Tyrie he'll matched up on Taren Johnson he had 13 targets 69 yards so I think that they have a good recipe for slowing

up the air week even if you look back to three 20 33 yards so we'll see what happens if it becomes a game though we're like I have them projected to get Molly walked and lose my 30 like maybe maybe they pull them and then that

that just completely helps but under 61 half I'm cool with that I like that number and I'm going to stay at the wider see your position and I'm going to go with the guy that similar speed but not quite on the level of Tyrie kill I'm going to go

...