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The Politics Guys

Election 2020: Polls & Predictions

The Politics Guys

Michael Baranowski

News, Politics

4.4783 Ratings

🗓️ 28 October 2020

⏱️ 42 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this installment of our “Election 2020” series, featuring six Northern Kentucky University students, we discuss how historically accurate election polling has been, what the polls say now, if we should trust the polls after 2016, and our predictions for the presidential race as well as control of the House and Senate. The Politics Guys on Facebook | Twitter Mike’s New Podcast - Politics Makes Me Sick Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. If you’re interested in supporting the podcast, go to patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/the-politics-guys/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Atheists, agnostics, long-haired, weirdos, short-haired, weirdos, vandal,

0:05.6

Gula.

0:05.8

I love the government, love the government, love the government, hug the government, love, the government.

0:11.8

Welcome to the politics, guys, placed for bipartisan, rational, and simple debate on American politics and policy.

0:17.3

I'm Michael Barronowski, Professor of Political Science at Northern Kentucky University.

0:22.6

Today, as the last pre-election episode of our Election 2020 series, we'll be discussing how accurate election polls are, what happened in 2016, if we can trust the polls this year, what those polls are telling us and our predictions for

0:38.5

the presidential race as well as control of the Senate and House of Representatives.

0:43.7

What have major polling organizations done to try to adjust their methods based on what they've

0:50.0

learned from 2016? Who wants to start us off? Faith. Yeah, kind of what happened in 2016 is not so

0:58.0

much that the polls were completely wrong, but a lot of the polls actually fell within their

1:02.5

appropriate margin of air. But the fact that Trump was actually able to pick up a couple swing

1:07.0

states that these polls didn't quite have in his favors, but kind of really threw it off.

1:12.0

And so, like, a lot of things that polling organizations have attempted to do this time around

1:15.3

is consider different factors that have been going on, especially considering looking at

1:21.1

education and seeing kind of where respondents' education is. They've also done things in terms of kind of shifting

1:28.4

polling, going away from traditional polling types like random digit dialing to using texting,

1:34.2

which I know some polls have said that has allowed them to get younger respondents and even men

1:40.2

to increase. So I think anything else that they've been doing has really kind of been beneficial.

1:45.8

Also kind of taking away from the idea that some pollsters have said that, like as Trump

1:51.5

refers to them as the silent majority, didn't throw them off.

1:53.9

But a couple of posters saying that it did in this time around, they are taking more into

1:57.6

account to make sure that those respondents actually give a direct

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