My big goods all along

Who am I?

A major sinmaker

Who am I?

Good morning and welcome to episode 86 of Effectively Wild Detailing Podcasts from Baseball Perspectus presented by the Clamdex at baseballreference.com

I am Ben Lemberg of 538 joined by Saint Miller of Baseball Perspectus. Hello. Hey, how are you today? Pretty good. I'm great. I'm wearing my TV makeup still. So I feel like I can conquer the world. I leave it on for hours. Whenever I get back from MLB Network, I just admire myself in my fake complexion.

You should just walk the streets of New York trying to be a man on the street just looking for TV crews. You could be like in Nightcrawler, except instead of the cameraman, you're just trying to be the witness.

You just get a police scanner hunt down an accident and then be the guy who's like, yeah, I heard a loud boom.

Just a loiter. He seems so quiet. I never thought he would be the one. They just marveled at how telegenic I look. I look like Snooki from the chin up and Ben Lemberg from the neck down.

I'll be sad when I remove it later and remember how pale I am. Anything you want to banter about before we get to emails? No. Okay, then we will get to emails.

All right, we got a couple trout trade emails responses to when we talked about a trout trade, but these are asking about Albert Poohol's and his potential inclusion in such a trade.

So one is from Jeff. The other is from Nathan. I will read Nathan's because it's shorter. How does the discourse surrounding hypothetical trout trades change if it is framed as a salary dump rather than a prospect gathering venture?

The angels owe trout and Poohol's are combined $260 million after this season ends. Would the angels be willing to accept less in return for trout if they could unburden themselves of Poohol's contract?

If so, how much less is acceptable? Is there a team out there willing to pay Poohol's until he is 41 just so they can have trout in his prime?

What would the angels do with all this money? And Jeff was essentially asking the same thing about the cardinals specifically, but if the trade is just, we'll give you my trout and you have to take Albert Poohol's who says no.

What's the math? Well, so we did the trout math the last time we talked about this and you figured that teams will be paying them something like $3.5 million per win over the next four plus seasons.

And Poohol's would go a long way toward balancing that out in the other direction, right? He is owed $25 million this season and then $26.27, $28.29.30 in the five seasons after that and what would he be projected to produce the other long term Pocoda forecast for the rest of his contract?

Yeah, I'd probably do, but first do that, do that math for me too. So he's owed $140 million over the next five seasons plus, say, $20 million the rest of this year. So $160 or so due to him on his contract.

And that's through 2021. Yes.

Okay, so Pocoda's long term forecast for him is that he would add about four wins in total, which including the rest of the season.

That includes the rest of the season. Let's see, he's at replacement level by both Warp and by baseball references model of war this year, although was, you know, a relatively valuable wall player.

The previous two seasons, he's been a two or three win player those seasons, but he's old. So we've got, we've got roughly 40 wins at 135 million and roughly four wins at 160 million.

...