When Martin Perez was effectively wild today or wildly effective one or the other

Hello and welcome to episode 876 of Effectively Wild the Daily Podcast from baseball

was so that was anything remotely like major league baseball like I don't think there's an analogy in any of my jobs.

Yeah, I mean I would prefer to be a pitcher in a dead ball era than a juiced ball era. I mean there's no real reason it doesn't affect you and your status relative to other players. It shouldn't affect your pay.

The only thing it really affects is just kind of I guess how powerful you feel and just how how good about yourself you feel the kind of positive or negative feedback you get from each pitch.

I mean maybe it's just demoralizing to watch someone hit a 450 foot home run even if the new standard is higher even if that's not any higher above the average home run.

It still probably feels a little bit worse. Yeah, I don't think I would mind probably.

It's really hard for me to say that I don't know the psychologist. I don't I can't think of a good comparison for it in life or even really in baseball.

And so I have to think more about the psychology of seeing more home runs but having them be you know in a vacuum no real change.

It's a hard it's a hard question. It sure is.

All right, question from Andrew. Tonight on CBS evening news got Pellie was reacting to lester city winning the premier league with preseason odds of 5,000 to 1.

He then stated that 5,000 to 1 was quote as unlikely as a minor league baseball team winning the world series.

Now I think the fallacy of this statement speaks for itself. I mean by definition a minor league team can't win the world series.

However, I know you guys like to go deep. So I was wondering let's say one minor league team got invited to the playoffs based on some level weighted calculation of overall performance.

They would obviously be the best team in the minor leagues that season but how could we assess their odds of winning the world series.

And so I was just chatting with our friend baseball prospectus author Russell Carlton who is good at doing back of the envelope calculations like this.

And so we started with the assumption that a replacement level team wins around 47 games and that this is a replacement level team that this is you know the best team in triple A.

And so it's the closest kind of thing. It's a team full of replacement players who you would promote if the 25th man on your major league roster got hurt.

So say it's a replacement level team and interesting. I would you guys came to a different conclusions and I did just on that.

I would have probably put them higher than a replacement level but good.

Fine. I don't think I would. I don't because that wouldn't play that well, I guess there could be better teams than a replacement level team.

But if you use that assumption, then most wins above replacement methods treat replacement level at around a 47 win team.

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