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Good morning and welcome to episode 573 of Effectively Wild,

The Daily Podcast from Baseball Prospectus presented by the Playindex at baseballreference.com.

I'm Ben Lindbergh of Greatland joined by Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus. Hi.

So you updated your survey of the results of Jerry Cresnick's executive survey,

which I was happy to see. I enjoyed that article that you wrote a couple of years ago.

Jerry Cresnick does a survey of hot off-season questions every year around this time.

He's been doing it for over 10 years. And you looked at this couple of years ago to see

whether the executives were any better than chance or better than we are when coming up with the answers to these questions.

Maybe we probably talked about it on the podcast at the time.

And you found that they were not significantly better than chance that they were just a little bit better

than a coin flip and the samples are so small, I suppose, that they could actually be worse or they could be much better.

But you have updated it for the last couple of years, which is good,

but I just did an update for Grantland today of my off-season predictions piece,

which is looking back at the predictions that teams made about themselves.

And so I cited your research as evidence that no one can predict anything about anything.

So did you were you particularly surprised by any of the responses in Cresnick's latest survey?

The best executives, he has 28 people, whether they thought Leicester or Scherzer would be a better value,

which outfielder the Dodgers were more likely to trade, most likely to trade this winter,

...