I'm genuinely sorry that I missed your party.

You should try holding all the guilt I still carry.

Good morning and welcome to episode 554 of Effectively Wild, the Daily Podcast from Baseball

Prospectus, who's entered by the Play Index half-baseballreference.com.

I'm Sam Miller with Ben Lindbergh of Grantland and I am simultaneously doing a thing for this

show while reading or reciting, I guess, that intro.

So forgive me for a couple of odd poses.

Ben, how are you?

No one could have told.

I am well, thank you.

All right, so what I am doing right now, in case you were wondering, is I am changing the

Cardinals Game 1 lineup from Yaddia Mellina to Tony Cruz to see what that does to their

chances of winning that game.

And so let's see, as it was St. Louis, San Francisco, Game 1, the Cardinals were 58% likely.

Game 2?

No, Game 1, Game 1.

And I'm just because I'm thinking about going forward, I think.

Okay.

And this is only stage 1 of this.

So Cardinals were 58% likely to win according to Dakota.

Any guess what that'll be now?

With Cruz and Setam Mellina.

...