Effectively Wild Episode 2267: The Breakout Breakdown
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley
4.7 • 2.7K Ratings
🗓️ 7 January 2025
⏱️ 100 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley rant about the practice of picking “breakout” players who have already broken out, react (22:20) to the Orioles’ Charlie Morton signing and discuss (38:24) Morton as one of the pitchers who best embodies his era, and answer listener emails (52:14) about whether the existence of the minor leagues suggests that baseball is the hardest sport to play and why MLB’s potential TV-driven decrease in revenue is worthy worrying about, plus a postscript (1:33:54).
Audio intro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to Rooker tweet
Link to pet peeve wiki
Link to breakout picks article
Link to R.J.’s 2024 picks
Link to R.J.’s picks revisited
Link to Ben’s tweet about R.J.
Link to MLBTR on Morton
Link to FG post on Morton
Link to McCarthy interview
Link to team SP projections
Link to individual SP projections
Link to team payrolls
Link to O’s payroll page
Link to McCarthy interview
Link to baseball exceptionalism wiki
Link to Ben on caliber of play
Link to Allegory of the Cave
Link to Seidler story 1
Link to Seidler story 2
Link to Seidler story 3
Link to Seidler story 4
Link to Chargers story
Link to neutral zone wiki
Link to listener emails database
Link to EW Episode 2104
Link to 2-strike tOPS+
Link to 2-strike sOPS+
Link to Schunk story
Link to EW gift subscriptions
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello, Ben Lundberg and McRolley, come for the ball, and the banters free. |
| 0:08.1 | Baseball is a simulation. |
| 0:10.9 | It's all just one big conversation. |
| 0:17.3 | Effectively wild. |
| 0:20.7 | Hello and welcome to episode 2267 of Effectively Wild a baseball podcast from |
| 0:27.0 | FanGraphs presented by our Patreon supporters. |
| 0:30.0 | I am Ben Lindberg of the Ringer, joined by Meg Raleigh of Fancrafts. |
| 0:33.7 | Hello, Meg. |
| 0:34.3 | Hello. |
| 0:35.2 | I didn't think I could like multi-time Effect wildguessed Brent Rooker anymore than I already |
| 0:40.1 | do, but he tweeted just this past weekend. |
| 0:43.9 | He quote tweeted an MLB Network tweet, which highlighted Lawrence Butler's breakout. |
| 0:51.2 | I would say breakout 2024. |
| 0:53.8 | And it provides his stats in the last 73 games of the 2024 season. |
| 0:59.8 | 302 average 597 slugging percentage, 20 homers, 40 extra base hits, 943 OPS. |
| 1:06.8 | And the tweet by MLB Network says, 24-year-old slug slugger Lawrence Butler is a breakout candidate to watch in 2025. |
| 1:15.7 | Eyes emoji. |
| 1:16.8 | Eyes emoji. |
| 1:18.2 | Brent Rooker of the now Sacramento Ace and occasionally of the effectively wild podcast when he deans to join us, he quote tweeted and said, guys, if we're not counting what he did in |
| 1:28.3 | 2024 as a breakout, then I'm not really sure what qualifies. |
| 1:32.8 | Could not agree more. |
| 1:35.3 | Yeah. |
... |
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