Hello and Welcome to

Well and welcome to episode 2238 of Effectively Wild, a Fangraphs baseball podcast brought

you by our Patreon supporters.

I'm Meg Rowley of Fangraps, and I am joined by Ben Lindberg of the ringer.

Ben, how are you?

I'm a little tired, but I'm energized, and I have a question for you, which is this.

If I had told you on Wednesday prior to

World Series Game 5 some important facts or what might seem like important telling facts about

what was going to go down in that game. What odds do you think? What victory probability do you think you would have given

the Dodgers? If I had told you that Jack Clarity would last four outs and give up as many earned

runs, that Garrett Cole would give up zero earned runs over six and two thirds innings, that the Dodgers would use

eight pitchers, that the Yankees would out homer the Dodgers three to nothing and also out

hit and out walk them, that Aaron Judge would finally get going and have a multi-hit game,

including one of those dingers.

If I told you that collection of facts, what win probability do you think you would assign to the Dodgers in that game?

21%. Yeah, that seems generous, if anything, to me.

Yeah.

It didn't go that way.

No.

I think I would have said, okay, so we're going back to L.A. We're going to get. Yeah. It didn't go that way. No. I think I would have said, okay, so we're going back to

L.A. Yeah. We're going to get more baseball. We're going to game six. Yeah. That is not the way it

worked out. It is not. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the 2024 World Series champions.

...