Maybe if you're lucky, we'll co-call by the chance.

You never know precisely where it's gonna go.

By definition, effectively wild a baseball podcast from fan graphs presented

by our Patreon supporters I am Ben Lindbergh of the

ringer joined by Meg Raleigh of fan graphs. Hello Meg. Hello! I mentioned recently

that we seem to have jinxed Met's reliever Reed Garrett because we talked in early May about how great

he had been to that point and he has not been so great since that point.

So when we talked about him his performance was through

May 2nd and he had a 0.54 ERA pretty spectacular.

And since that point, he has a 6.28 ERA.

Now, if you look under the hood, it's not actually that different.

His X-Vip, for instance, was 2.58 in that first period and it's 3.16 in the second period. So it's some

regression and some good luck turning into bad luck and he's still getting strike outs and

good strike-out minus walk rate and everything.

But the surface stats have tanked since we talked about him.

And just to establish that that does not always happen,

that there is not always an effectively wild jinx.

In fact, sometimes there's an effectively wild reverse jinx,

where we will talk about someone who is not performing very well and they will subsequently perform very well.

Well that happened to, right around the same time in early May, we talked about one Vladimir Guerrero Jr this was on

episode 2161 and we noted that he had not been very good to that point and of course he had a disappointing season last year

too and so we were lamenting when or if is Vlad gonna rake again he had a 107 WRC plus through the point we talked about him through the

...