Effectively Wild Episode 1754: Never Tell Me the Odds
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley
4.7 • 2.7K Ratings
🗓️ 1 October 2021
⏱️ 48 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
With the postseason around the corner, Meg Rowley and guest co-host Ben Clemens discuss the playoff picture, how the Seattle Mariners got where they are, which team Ben would prefer to see his Cardinals match up against in the NL Wild Card, and the biggest surprises of the season. Then they discuss Ben’s recent work assessing FanGraphs’ playoff odds, what the odds do well and less-well, what kinds of teams they tend to be too low on or overestimate, and how the model could improve. They also offer some theories about why we seem to struggle with probabilistic thinking, look back on what they’ll miss most about the 2021 regular season, and share some brief Cy Young thoughts.
Audio intro: The White Stripes, “Black Math”
Audio outro: The Decemberists, “The Mariner’s Revenge Song“
Ben Lindbergh’s baby announcement
Link to Ben’s piece assessing FanGraphs’ playoff odds
Link to Ben Clemens’s follow-up playoff odds piece
Link to Jay Jaffe’s Mariners-themed Team Entropy update
Link to Jake Mailhot on the performances behind the Mariners’ success
Link to Dan Szymborski’s latest ZiPS stretch run projections
Link to Corey Brock at The Athletic’s piece on whether the Mariners are good or lucky
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | I was just thinking that I'd go for React now. |
| 0:23.6 | We are now! |
| 0:24.6 | We are now! |
| 0:25.6 | We are now! |
| 0:26.6 | We are now! |
| 0:27.6 | We're making everything look like a flag now! |
| 0:30.6 | Hello and welcome to episode 1734 of Effectively Wild, a Fangirlass baseball podcast brought |
| 0:35.4 | to you by Asparte Patreon supporters. |
| 0:37.2 | I'm Meg Raleigh of Fangirlass and I am joined to ease you into the Ben Limberg Bliss month |
| 0:42.4 | ahead by another Ben. |
| 0:44.1 | Ben Clements, hi Ben, how are you? |
| 0:46.1 | I'm doing pretty well, how are you? |
| 0:47.6 | I'm doing well. |
| 0:48.6 | I am feeling some like stirring a fan feeling and it's an usual, it's been a little while |
| 0:54.9 | since I've had that experience. |
| 0:56.6 | We are going to talk about some of the work that you've done for the site over the last |
| 1:00.3 | week in a little bit here but I thought before we talked about how good our playoff odds |
| 1:04.9 | are, we could talk about the current state of the playoff race because despite the divisions |
| 1:11.1 | all being pretty well decided except for the NLS, we have something of a barn burner |
| 1:16.8 | here. |
| 1:17.8 | That's a season barn burner, this is very exciting. |
| 1:20.2 | Well, I don't think you're supposed to burn stuff in the Pacific Northwest anymore. |
... |
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