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Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Effectively Wild Episode 1726: Hit, Stand, or Surrender

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley

Baseball, Sports

4.72.7K Ratings

🗓️ 28 July 2021

⏱️ 78 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the one-for-one A’s-Marlins swap involving Starling Marte and Jesús Luzardo, Marte’s underrated career, and Miami’s enviable pitching stockpile, then discuss the circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Max Scherzer. After that (35:21), they talk to FiveThirtyEight senior writer Neil Paine about the factors that affect whether teams add or subtract at the trade deadline, Neil’s “Doyle Number” metric for assessing trade-season incentives, how this year’s unusual playoff picture has created unusual deadline conditions, and specific teams that should or shouldn’t be motivated to make moves.

Audio intro: Guided By Voices, "Bellicose Starling"
Audio interstitial: Modest Mouse, "Bankrupt on Selling"
Audio outro: Arthur Brown, "Come and Buy"

Link to Marte WAR comparison
Link to Zach Kram on trading top prospects
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the Scherzer talks
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Nationals
Link to story on Scherzer’s contract
Link to “Doyle Number” articles
Link to Jayson Stark on execs at the deadline
Link to 2021 “Doyle Number” data
Link to Rob Arthur on the playoff picture
Link to Neil’s “Hall of Good” series
Link to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast history
Link to Neil’s research on true talent
Link to Hot Takedown podcast

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Source

Transcript

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0:00.0

Electrical styling, annual migration, grading because your Mac speaks something good

0:13.6

United but untied happy to go play

0:19.1

which way to a star

0:25.7

at last in the quater

0:30.5

Hello and welcome to episode 1726 and effectively wild and baseball podcast

0:37.3

when band graphs brought to you by our Patreon supporters

0:40.8

and Ben Lemberg of the Ringer joined by Meg Rally of band graphs hello Mac

0:45.2

Hello you're trying to pick a time when what we say will not be immediately out

0:49.6

dated during deadline week which is almost impossible so no matter when we

0:54.4

record there were almost certainly be a trade that breaks right after we do but

0:58.7

we will get to it eventually and we will just talk about what we can talk about

1:02.5

what we know so far later in this episode we will be joined by Neil Paine of

1:06.9

538 who will help us break down the deadline how to decide whether you should add

1:12.0

or subtract Neil has come up with a stat called the Doyle number that helps

1:17.0

distill all of those complicated factors down into a single figure which can

1:21.5

kind of give you a guide though as we will discuss there are many other factors

1:25.2

that come into play so we'll talk about that general framework and also some of

1:29.1

the specific teams that are deciding whether to upgrade now or to set their

1:32.6

sights on the long term but we do have some trades and an interesting trade to

1:37.2

talk about Michael Gibbons going to the Reds not that one I mean that's

1:42.0

kind of interesting for Reds fans I guess but the really interesting one which

1:46.1

is done as we record here on Wednesday afternoon is a one for one

...

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