Effectively Wild Episode 1715: It’s Academic
Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley
4.7 • 2.7K Ratings
🗓️ 2 July 2021
⏱️ 102 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about passing the halfway point of the regular season, the early effects of the sticky-stuff crackdown, a historically high-scoring day, the white-hot Brewers (and Willy Adames) and the red-hot Nationals (and Kyle Schwarber), a Germán Márquez gem, and a study on how kids become fans that helps explain how Ben and Meg became co-hosts. Then they talk to two academics who have used baseball data to study psychology: Professor James Archsmith of the University of Maryland (33:37) on umpires and decision fatigue, and Professor Hengchen Dai of the UCLA Anderson School of Management (56:33) on midseason trades and performance resets (plus a postscript about foreign-substance beef between Josh Donaldson and Lucas Giolito).
Audio intro: Cheap Trick, "Hard to Tell"
Audio interstitial 1: Kelley Stoltz, "Decisions, Decisions"
Audio interstitial 2: Tri-State, "Start Again"
Audio outro: Lucy Dacus, "Going Going Gone"
Link to Jeff Sullivan on preseason projections
Link to Jeff on predicting second-half records
Link to Eno Sarris on sticky stuff
Link to Rob Arthur on sticky stuff and the Dodgers
Link to Ben on the PED era
Link to Will Sammon on the Brewers
Link to Brewers predicting a home run
Link to Brewers predicting a comeback
Link to Eric Cummings data on defensive turnarounds
Link to Sam Miller on “True Wins”
Link to study on age and fandom
Link to Professor Archsmith’s website
Link to paper on umpires and decision fatigue
Link to study on umpires and air quality
Link to article about umpires and air quality
Link to study on umpires and racial discrimination
Link to article about discriminatory umpires study
Link to study on umpires and status bias
Link to study on umpires and the Gambler’s Fallacy
Link to Freakonomics on umps and the Gambler’s Fallacy
Link to study on players and rational inattention
Link to Rob on pitchers taking their time
Link to Rob on hitters taking their time
Link to Professor Dai’s website
Link to study on trades and fresh starts
Link to article about trades study
Link to Donaldson/Giolito story
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | It's not that easy, baby, it's not that hard to tell |
| 0:08.0 | It's not that easy, baby, life is hell |
| 0:14.0 | What I'm doing, man, it's hard to tell |
| 0:21.0 | I'm doing well, it's hard to tell |
| 0:28.0 | It's hard to tell |
| 0:31.0 | Hello and welcome to episode 1715 |
| 0:34.0 | I'm effectively wild, a fan-grapzed baseball podcast brought to you by our Patreon supporters on Mega Rally of FanGraphs |
| 0:40.0 | And I'm joined as always by Ben Limberg of the Ranger, Ben How are you? |
| 0:43.0 | I'm doing alright, and we're posting this episode on Friday, July 2nd, and if you're listening on this day, |
| 0:50.0 | then happy 50% of the way through the regular season day, this is the day when we cross that threshold |
| 0:57.0 | We'll be more than halfway through the regularly scheduled games at the end of today |
| 1:02.0 | Wow, is there a word that we misapply from another sport to mark the halfway point of the season? |
| 1:09.0 | Like we do with quarter pole, which means the opposite of what people think it does |
| 1:13.0 | Right, I don't know, half pole |
| 1:16.0 | Half pole |
| 1:18.0 | I don't know anything about racing, except that don't bring cardboard signs to the tour to France, or you'll get arrested |
| 1:24.0 | There are some other things in there that led to that, but here we are |
| 1:27.0 | Yeah, anyway, an important milestone |
| 1:30.0 | Yeah, we're past that point, so it's a time to take stock of some things, perhaps take a look at the standings |
| 1:37.0 | They're meaningful, we're more meaningful than they used to be, although I think based on the collected works of Jeff Sullivan |
| 1:44.0 | Well, then we are still probably not at the point where in season results are a better predictor of team performance at least than the preseason projections |
| 1:51.0 | The preseason projections, they really hold sway for some time |
... |
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