Economists See Increasing Risk of Recession and Stagflation

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 19 April 2022

⏱️ 16 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Arculus and FTX US. Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW explores the growing chorus of economists who think the U.S. is headed towards a recession as the inevitable consequence of the Federal Reserve’s attempt to fight inflation. He also looks at the growing discourse around whether we’re headed toward a staflagtionary period of high inflation and low economic growth. - From cash to crypto in no time with Nexo. Invest in hot coins and swap between exclusive pairs for cash back, earn up to 17% interest on your idle crypto assets and borrow against them for instant liquidity. Simple and secure. Head on to nexo.io and get started now. - Arculus™ is the next-gen cold storage wallet for your crypto. The sleek, metal Arculus Key™ Card authenticates with the Arculus Wallet™ App, providing a simpler, safer and more secure solution to store, send, receive, buy and swap your crypto. Buy now at amazon.com. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - Consensus 2022, the industry’s most influential event, is happening June 9–12 in Austin, Texas. If you’re looking to immerse yourself in the fast-moving world of crypto, Web 3 and NFTs, this is the festival experience for you. Use code BREAKDOWN to get 15% off your pass at www.coindesk.com/consensus2022. - Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1438693620?at=1000lSDb Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/538vuul1PuorUDwgkC8JWF?si=ddSvD-HST2e_E7wgxcjtfQ Google: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9ubHdjcnlwdG8ubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M= Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW - “The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “I Don't Know How To Explain It” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Hoowy/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.1	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:15.0	The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io, Arculus, and FtX, and produced and distributed by CoinDesk.
0:22.6	What's going on, guys? It is Monday, April 18th, and today we are discussing why economists
0:28.2	are seeing an increasing risk of recession and why you're hearing a lot more discussion about
0:34.8	stagflation. Before we dig into that, however, a few housekeeping items.
0:40.5	There are two ways to enjoy the breakdown podcast. You can listen on the CoinDesk Crypto
0:46.1	Podcast Network feed, which features the breakdown and other Coin desk shows. You can also listen
0:51.4	on the breakdown only feed, which has just this show. Both come out on the same day, with Coin desk coming out in the afternoon on the breakdown only feed which has just this show.
0:54.6	Both come out on the same day with CoinDest coming out in the afternoon and the breakdown
0:58.1	only feed coming out in the evening.
1:01.0	Whichever feed you listen to, if you're enjoying the show, please go subscribe to it,
1:05.0	give it a rating, give it a review.
1:06.6	And if you want to get deeper into the conversation, come join us on the breakers discord.
1:11.2	You can find a link in the show notes or get a bit.le slash breakdown pod.
1:15.4	Also, at Disclosure as always, in addition to them being a sponsor of the show, I also work with FTX.
1:22.0	Now today, we are focusing on the macroeconomic environment and we're kicking it off with what is a growing chorus around
1:28.1	the possibility of a recession. Bloomberg writes, Goldman Sachs sees U.S. recession odds at 35% in the next
1:35.0	two years. So what's going on? Well, of course, right now the Federal Reserve is trying to navigate
1:40.9	the U.S. to a soft landing. Inflation has gotten too high, and so they need to shift monetary policy to try to cool it down.
1:49.0	The tightrope that they're trying to walk is that they want to do that and reverse inflation
1:53.4	without causing a recession on the other side of it.
	...

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