100 days in, the president has made a bold gamble with a fundamental change in economic policy,

launching a series of tough tariffs and trade wars. The president argues that in time,

tariffs will revitalize manufacturing, reduce the national debt substantially, and grow the economy.

But there are many questions about that approach. GDP numbers out today show the economy

shrank last quarter and are being seen as yet another sign of the negative impact of tariffs.

We're going to get two distinct views about all of this, and we begin with Orrin Cass. He's founder

and chief economist at the influential think tank American Compass. He's also author of a new book

called The New Conservatives, Restoring America's commitment to family, community, and industry.

Orrin Cass, welcome back to The News Hour. Thanks for joining us.

Thanks for having me. So let's start with that latest GDP number, which showed a contraction

in the first quarter. It's the first GDP pullback

in three years. There are some pointing out that the numbers are a little bit distorted because of

big advanced purchases that were being placed before the tariffs hit. But there's also real

concern about a slowdown ahead. So what's your view? Well, I think it's fair to be concerned,

but it's also correct that the number

that just came out doesn't indicate that one way or another. There are all sorts of interesting

nuances in how GDP gets calculated. And in this case, if you strip out the noise, it doesn't really

look like an abnormal quarter at all. So one way or another, I think we're still waiting and seeing on that.

There have been some other indicators people have pointed to as signs of concern, though.

We saw consumer spending, yes, very strong in March. Again, people thinking Americans are trying

to get ahead of the tariffs. In April, though, we did see consumer confidence drop for the fifth

straight month. It's now at COVID-era lows.

...