Economic Truth-Telling in an Age of Narratives
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 5 August 2022
⏱️ 26 minutes
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Summary
One of the hardest things about being an economic commentator in this day and age is that economic commentary requires nuance, and this day and age requires narratives. There is to be a single narrative about X, and any variation around, above, beneath, or of the exact X narrative is heretical or at least unappreciated.
It is a tough way for society to function, but it is an especially tough way to do economic analysis.
I do not merely refer to the inevitable complexity involved in topics like these that are, well, complex. You are smart readers, and I do my very best (sometimes better than others) to make complex topics a bit more comprehensible in my writing and speaking. Readers and listeners can judge how effective I am there, but I do try. No, this is not about complexity, but nuance, which basically can be quite simple at times; it is just that it doesn't fit into the script of a narrative. It isn't binary. The nuances of proper economic analysis aren't always fit for a forced narrative.
Such is the moment we are in, and today I want to answer your questions about the state of the economy. If I do my job right, everyone will be mad at me when all is said and done (I should fail at landing in either of the primary narratives of the day). Such is the plight of an economic truth-teller in 2022 ...
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Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.1 | Well, hello and welcome to another Dividend Cafe recording live from my New York apartment where I just arrived about an hour ago, and I'm just |
| 0:22.7 | getting ready to leave for a day of meetings, but I got the weekly jobs, or excuse me, the |
| 0:28.6 | monthly jobs report just came out moments ago. So I'm going to incorporate that into some of the |
| 0:33.7 | things I'm talking about today. And I'm hoping this will be a really valuable dividend cafe for you because I think most of us |
| 0:40.9 | have spent the last week after the GDP number came out and it was negative for the second |
| 0:48.0 | quarter in a row, then it really just launched this kind of flush of inane, tribal, sort of ridiculous commentary. |
| 1:00.4 | And I'm trying to avoid the ridiculous and the inane at the Dividend Cafe and present some |
| 1:07.6 | objective and useful economic perspective. |
| 1:12.0 | And I want to give you a little background and primer on recessions, on GDP, |
| 1:17.5 | and finally we're going to talk a bit about jobs. |
| 1:21.6 | Listen, I do understand why the topic is somewhat politicized. |
| 1:28.2 | Part of the problem with that is there is a tendency to want to give a political power, |
| 1:35.3 | particularly a president, so much credit for good things in the economy when they happen. |
| 1:40.8 | And there's a tendency to want to give a president so much blame. |
| 1:44.9 | And that is something that's been going on for a very long time. |
| 1:49.8 | And so what happens out of that is every issue like this becomes naturally very politicized. |
| 1:57.2 | And it's not like a first time, but the party before did it and the opposition party would |
| 2:04.4 | do it and so forth. And so you get this kind of cycle of interpreting economic data through a |
| 2:10.3 | lens of how it can either help or hurt someone politically. And I don't think it's a secret to |
| 2:16.0 | people that are likely not a secret to most |
| 2:20.2 | people watching, listening to this Dividy Cafe. I myself am a movement conservative. I use |
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