BG Squares is our BG Squared panel everybody knows friends of the pod

Bragg Gerstner and Bill Gurley give it up for

Yes

Bill you predicted five of the last three recessions

A broken clock is still right twice a day. I mean here we are again you you've

Sounded the alarm bell and of course you're right and you've seen this movie

before for all of us younger capital allocators

Who are experiencing it for the second or third time that you've experienced it a couple more times

How how I mean it's pretty old

How does it how does this one measure up to great recession doccomb bust?

You know 87 and the many ones we've seen in between you know one thing that I think

Super important to put this into context now I'll try and tell this quick

I had a meeting once with Howard Marks who I wanted to meet for a long period of time. He's a

Famous bond investor that does a lot of writing and

And for 15 minutes he asked me questions about the venture industry a lot of structural questions and I told him

My answers best I could and he said man, that's a really shitty industry and I said well, why do you say that?

What do you mean he says he says you know cyclical collapse is built into the structure and so we have funds that

You know are taking you know committed to that have 10 to 15 year lives

So you have low barriers to entry, but you have very high barriers to exit and so

He felt that it was just systematically set up to to rise and crash rise and crash

And one thing that that I realized coming out of that is that

It it doesn't happen like a sign curve, which is what we all imagine when we think of a cyclical business

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