E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In Podcast, LLC

Business, Entrepreneurship, Technology

4.0 • 10.4K Ratings

🗓️ 26 March 2022

⏱️ 96 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

0:00 Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner is filling in for Friedberg

1:34 Understanding public SaaS and Internet multiples, Instacart's cuts its valuation by 40%, understanding reality of overvalued late-stage companies

21:52 Capital allocators at fault, how crossover funds are reacting, late-stage price discovery, investor and founder behavioral psychology

40:37 Sacks' burn multiple, managing growth spend, new VC qualifications, lessons from the COVID bubble

53:58 Russia/Ukraine: US potential non-ceasefire strategy, Zelenskyy's revelations in CNN interview, rhetoric getting more aggressive

1:08:58 How will Putin withdraw without redacting the sanctions? What is the offramp? Zelenskyy's posture on global war

1:24:18 Understanding China's recently announced tax cuts, All-In Summit talk

Follow the besties:

https://twitter.com/chamath

https://linktr.ee/calacanis

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks

https://twitter.com/friedberg

https://twitter.com/altcap

Follow the pod:

https://twitter.com/theallinpod

https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-burnmultiple-51a7e43cb200

https://substack.com/profile/11803623-jamin-ball

https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/1506243619384037378

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-22/niall-ferguson-putin-and-biden-misunderstand-history-in-ukraine-war

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1507378113893871617

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-first-phase-ukraine-operation-mostly-complete-focus-now-donbass-2022-03-25/

https://www.wptv.com/news/national/russia-ukraine-conflict/zelenskyy-warns-of-world-war-iii-if-russia-ukraine-peace-talks-fail

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/03/20/zelensky_ukraine_failed_putin_talks_would_mean_a_third_world_war.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/20/zelenskyy-ukraine-zakaria-interview-00018716

https://fortune.com/2022/03/25/russia-g20-summit-putin-biden-indonesia-bali-china-ukraine/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine.html

https://fortune.com/2022/03/24/putin-russia-natural-gas-europe-imports-pay-in-rubles-sanctions/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/biden-says-us-would-respond-to-russia-if-putin-uses-chemical-or-biological-weapons.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2014/03/09/blinken-u-s-would-not-recognize-crimea-secession/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sticks-with-longstanding-u-s-policy-on-use-of-nuclear-weapons-amid-pressure-from-allies-11648176849

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-21/china-embraces-supply-side-economics-with-tax-cuts

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the all in podcast. We have a new
0:04.8	Bestie, yes, the filling in for the Prince of panic attacks.
0:10.2	The Queen of Kinwa, the Sultan of Science can't make it this week. I think after his incredible
0:15.9	performance last week and him trending on TikTok with his incredible insights over, sadly, the
0:23.2	the potential famine that could come after this Ukraine war. He decided he would take a week off.
0:29.6	I think it's just a little too much attention for him. So we have a Bestie guestie today. Yes,
0:32.8	the shaman of stocks is with us. He brings the equanimity to equities. You know him. He'll
0:38.0	bring that Namaste to your payday. His predictions are the anti-Galloway. Brad Gershner, welcome back to
0:44.8	the program. Thanks for having me. Namaste. And also with us, of course, the Rainman himself. He's
0:53.0	bitter on Twitter. He's brawling on calling. He's the bill of rights from pack heights. Day,
0:59.8	it sucks. Boy, you've really done yourself today. And the Prince of Palo Alto, the overlord of the
1:06.5	over 10 window. Shema, Polly Huppetio. Check out you, the stinker of stonks. Oh, God, relax. You
1:15.2	don't leave the comedy to me. All right. And we open source into the fans and they just go
1:29.4	crazy. We're not a political show here, but obviously when world affairs become acute as they have,
1:42.7	we cannot ignore the war that is occurring in Ukraine. We're going to talk a little bit about
1:50.8	markets. I think we'll start with those with Brad Gershner here. The SaaS market and the index.
1:59.3	Why don't you walk us through this chart here because everybody's wondering what's happening
2:02.8	with the markets given the war, given interest rate hikes and the repricing of stocks. I don't
2:09.2	know how you would look at what happened in November, December, January, Brad. How do you contextualize?
2:14.3	Well, certainly a repricing. There's certainly a repricing, but I think of it more as normalization.
2:19.7	All right. Chimath was saying it in November. I was on CNBC talking about the fact that when
2:25.0	when we got to a post-COVID world, rates were going to normalize, go back to where they were in
	...

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