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More or Less

E-cigarettes: Can They Help People Quit?

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 5 February 2016

⏱️ 28 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Do e-cigarettes make quitting smoking more difficult? Research last month claimed to show that e-cigarettes harm your chances of quitting smoking. The paper got coverage world-wide but it also came in for unusually fierce criticism from academics who spend their lives trying to help people quit. It's been described as 'grossly misleading' and 'not scientific'. We look at what is wrong with the paper and ask if it should have been published in the first place.

A campaign of dodgy statistics

Are American presidential hopefuls getting away with statistical murder? We speak to Angie Drobnic, Editor of the US fact-checking website Politifact, about the numbers politicians are using - which are not just misleading, but wrong.

Will missing a week of school affect your GCSE results?

Recently education minister Nick Gibb said that missing a week of school could affect a pupil's GCSE grades by a quarter. We examine the evidence and explore one of the first rules of More or Less – 'correlation is not causation'. We interview Stephen Gorard, Professor of Education at Durham University.

What are the chances that a father and two of his children share the same birthday?

A loyal listener got in touch to find out how rare an occurrence this is. Professor David Spiegelhalter from the University of Cambridge explains the probabilities involved.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Charlotte McDonald

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hello and thanks for downloading this edition of More or Less.

0:03.2

I'm Tim Harford and this program was first broadcast on BBC Radio 4 on Friday the 5th of February.

0:10.3

Hello and welcome to More or Less, your weekly guide to the numbers that surround us in the news and in life.

0:16.4

This week is it true that taking children out of school for a few days to get a cheaper holiday

0:22.3

will torpedo their GCSC chances.

0:25.8

What's it like to fact check the American election campaign?

0:30.0

And we ponder this statement from one of the UK's foremost statisticians.

0:34.3

I go bl bl bl bl bl bl bl bl like that.

0:36.3

But first, you may have seen headlines like this in recent weeks.

0:39.9

Vaping, how e-cigarettes could be holding you back from quitting smoking.

0:44.7

E-cigarettes won't help you quit. Smokers using vapors are 28% less likely to ditch traditional cigarettes. Not good news if you were hoping to use e-cigarettes to help you give up smoking,

0:57.0

but this comes just a week or so after one brand of e-cigarettes

1:01.0

was approved as an aid to stop people smoking by the UK

1:05.9

Medicine regulator. That's the first step to becoming available on

1:09.4

prescription. So what's going on? Well more or less is Wesley Stevenson has been looking into this hello

1:14.3

Where's? Hello? Now this study what do we know about it? Well it was published in one of the Lancet spin-off journals the Lancet respiratory medicine

1:22.2

That's a well-respected journal, yeah?

1:23.7

It is, yes that's right, and it's a meta-analysis. That means that the authors reviewed all of the recent

1:29.2

academic literature to see what effect e-cigarettets had on people quitting smoking.

1:34.0

So they sifted out all the sketchier papers, the ones that didn't have control groups, for example,

1:39.0

and then they put the rest together to draw their conclusions.

1:42.0

The lead author was Professor Stanton Glance

...

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