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Don’t Stab Ukraine In The Back

Politix

Politix

Politics, News Commentary, News

4.61.4K Ratings

🗓️ 17 February 2023

⏱️ 83 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

It’s been one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. In that time, the United States had an election and the Republicans now calling the shots in the House are the same ones who want us to cut aid drastically if not abandon Ukraine altogether. Between the debt ceiling fight, and regular budget negotiations, Republicans could reduce aid spending by a lot, or they could create a protracted crisis where aid to Ukraine remains in limbo for several weeks or longer. What happens if we cut aid to Ukraine, or worse, while the two countries remain mired in bloody warfare? What might we hope to see happen between now and then on the ground in Ukraine to lower the stakes of a possibly steep reduction in U.S. aid? Could Ukraine conceivably win before that happens? The answer requires knowing the answers to complicated questions about military tactics and logistics. Senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute Rob Lee joins host Brian Beutler to cut through the jargon, and explain what we can reasonably expect to see happen in the coming crucial months before the U.S. posture towards Ukraine changes.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hi, everyone. Welcome to Positively Dreadful with me, your host, Brian Boiler. A quick spoiler,

0:24.4

we're going to mark the coming anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on this week's

0:28.5

episode. But we've actually been talking about doing this exact episode on this topic since

0:34.7

about the fall of last year. We kept almost recording it in January before finally deciding

0:40.6

to wait until now. So what was so special about the fall in January? Well, in the fall,

0:46.4

we were anticipating a high likelihood that Republicans would capture control of the

0:50.8

House of Representatives, maybe the Senate as well. And in looking ahead to the many ways

0:56.0

that would change US policy and political discourse, we realized that it would represent a meaningful

1:02.7

breach in the US government's otherwise unified support for Ukraine. A small one, maybe, but a real

1:09.6

one. And I don't really think we were alone in that assessment. I think it was a big part of the

1:15.1

reason Congress was able to pass a real appropriations bill to fund the government last year. You may have

1:22.7

heard it called the Omnibus or the $1.7 trillion spending bill. That bill passed with a filibuster

1:29.2

proof bipartisan majority in the Senate in defiance of public pleading from then house minority

1:35.1

leader Kevin McCarthy to hold off and to let the incoming House Republican majority take a whack at

1:41.1

the bill. But the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, is for now at least highly supportive

1:47.5

of US aid to Ukraine. And McConnell knew that punting the Omnibus into January or February

1:54.2

would mean giving McCarthy and the Republican Party's pro-Russia faction, which currently holds a

2:00.4

lot of sway in the House GOP conference, an early crack at the Ukraine aid budget.

2:07.3

So McConnell went over McCarthy's head. And instead of chipping away at US support for Ukraine,

2:12.1

Congress actually locked in tens of billions of dollars for weapons, troop supplies, and financial

2:18.0

support for the Ukrainian government. Then in January, after putting him through a day's long

2:25.0

humiliation ritual, Republicans elected McCarthy speaker in a way that made it clear that the people

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