Hey folks, as some of you know, I took a little bit of time off to drive the two kids off to

college and then flew to California to celebrate my brother John's birthday. The upshot is,

unfortunately, there's no interview for this week in place of that. Here is my essay from this week.

I hope you enjoy it.

If all goes as planned, I am back next week with a regular interview for the Seneca

podcast.

Stay tuned.

Does Beijing really want Trump?

Or are we just projecting?

Written by Kaiser Guo. In the months since Donald Trump cinched the Republican nomination, there has been much discussion among Western China analysts

over which candidate Beijing prefers. Well before July 21st, when President Joe Biden announced he would not seek

re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, this was already being widely discussed,

with several articles and op-eds addressing the question published in English-language news outlets.

In the weeks since Democrats converged quickly around Harris to lead the ticket,

there has been plenty of additional speculation,

especially after Harris picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate,

given his extensive experience in China.

He taught in Foshan for a year after 1989 and has made

some 30 trips to China since. So who would Beijing ultimately prefer? Right now there's simply

no clear consensus that we can see among Chinese elites. Perhaps most importantly, it's still anyone's guess what the man at the top of the Communist Party

thinks.

All of Xi's men have played their cards close to their chests, and what we can see in terms

...