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Planet Money

Do prediction market bettors make anything better?

Planet Money

NPR

Business, News

4.630.5K Ratings

🗓️ 18 April 2026

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Have you noticed a lot of young people getting into antenna-maxxing as alpha? Or, maybe searching for any bit of copium after they fat-fingered and got rinsed? Or maybe they farmed during a yes-fest on Mention Markets resulting in some serious printing? 

If none of that made sense to you, then we have the perfect episode for you. 

Prediction markets have taken off in the past few years, using the same legal loopholes as the crypto market to essentially claim they are a “swap,” or “futures market,” similar to that of the totally legal grain and pork belly markets, and less like the state-regulated sports gambling market. 

And they are great for the bondsharps who print on the regular (or, in English, “well known market makers who often make a lot of money”). 

These prediction market companies exist because they’ve convinced regulators that they’re also great for the rest of us. They're adding new knowledge to the world. Making us more informed about the future. 

On today’s episode, the case Kalshi has been making to regulators, the courts and the public as to why what looks like gambling and seems like gambling … is not. Why that argument’s kinda been working. And – if no one stops them – what prediction markets could do to our future.

For more, listen to former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson on The Indicator from Planet Money.

Live show tour and book info. / Subscribe to Planet Money+

Listen free: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.

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This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Bobby Allyn and Mary Childs. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money’s executive producer.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

So, figured out a way to pitch this?

0:03.7

We know books aren't exactly a new medium.

0:06.9

You know, a friend of mine once told me about a deeper bond with the product.

0:11.0

Nostalgia.

0:12.2

It's delicate but potent.

0:13.8

Sure, but let's not overthink this.

0:16.2

He told me that in Greek, nostalgia literally means the pain from an old wound.

0:24.2

It's a twinge in your heart far more powerful than memory alone.

0:27.5

Books aren't a spaceship, but a time mission.

0:32.5

Spaceships, listen, why don't we just tell listeners straight that it is called the Planet Money Book?

0:38.4

It has a collection of some of our favorite stories with updates and tons of new original recording.

0:41.7

Plus, it's available in bookstores now.

0:43.4

Wouldn't that home again? To a place we know we are loved.

0:49.3

This is Planet Money from NPR.

0:54.6

My friend and colleague, Bobby Allen, has been covering the banana and his growth of

0:59.0

prediction markets for NPR.

1:00.6

You know, the ones where you can bet on everything from Taylor Swift's wedding date

1:03.8

to the war in Iran.

1:05.8

And Bobby says this craze has kind of come out of nowhere.

1:09.0

Like a few years ago, when the CEO of one of the biggest prediction markets in the world reached out to Bobby. Like, hey, FYI, might be worth, like, incorporating some Kalshi prediction markets into your coverage. And I was like, a prediction what? Like, Kaushi, isn't that a cereal? The first thing that made Bobby think, wait, this may be a really big deal, happened last December.

1:28.0

First, he saw Kalshi was partnering with CNN, meaning that CNN would be telling people the news

1:32.8

and also telling them what people were betting on that news.

...

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