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Patrick Boyle On Finance

Do Central Bankers Care About Rising House Prices?

Patrick Boyle On Finance

Patrick Boyle

Investing, Business

4.9320 Ratings

🗓️ 26 August 2021

⏱️ 17 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Send us a textWhy don’t central bankers care about rising asset prices?For most people their greatest expense is housing. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans spend almost 40% of their take home pay on shelter, this might lead you to ask - why aren’t home prices included in measures of inflation? And should they be? Is real inflation much higher than is being reported in the CPI because of asset price inflation? Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: h...

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome. You are listening to Patrick Boyle on Finance, a podcast exploring ideas from quantitative finance, examining events occurring in markets right now and financial history to see what lessons can be taken away, including interviews with some of the most interesting people in the world of finance. To learn more about the podcast, visit onfinance.org.

0:27.2

For most people, their greatest expense is housing. If you're a millennial, it's probably

0:32.9

avocado toast, but right after that housing. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans spend

0:39.8

almost 40% of their take-home pay on shelter. This might lead you to ask, why aren't home

0:46.1

prices included in measures of inflation? And should they be? Inflation, as I'm sure you know,

0:52.3

is a measurement of changes in the overall price level of goods

0:56.4

and services throughout the economy. It's measured by comparing the current prices of a representative

1:02.4

basket of goods and services to their previous prices. That so far sounds pretty simple,

1:08.6

but it turns out to be a bit more complicated than you might

1:11.9

expect. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is the most widely used measure of inflation.

1:19.1

It's designed to measure price changes faced by urban consumers and is representative of the

1:25.7

inflation experienced by 93% of the US population.

1:30.3

It's an average though and doesn't necessarily reflect your specific experience.

1:36.3

We'll come back to this idea near the end of the podcast and we'll discuss how your experience of inflation might differ significantly

1:45.6

from the CPI.

1:47.7

Now we've seen huge government stimulus over the last year and a half relating to the global

1:52.4

pandemic, and this has brought about the broadest global house price boom in over 20 years

1:58.9

according to the financial times. It's also pushed up all sorts

2:03.3

of other asset prices, things like stocks, bonds, classic cars, cryptocurrencies, even

2:09.6

blue chip stocks like AMC and GameStop. A lot of commentators are arguing that there's way more

2:16.5

inflation occurring than shows up in the

2:19.7

CPI. You just need to take asset price inflation into account. They argue that if central

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