New strikes in Iran, the same old uncertainty in markets. For Marketplace, I'm Novosafo. Good morning. The U.S. military carried out what it described as self-defense strikes in Iran last night. Iran called it a violation of the ceasefire agreement and said it reserved the right to retaliate. This as negotiators worked toward a framework agreement to end the war, one that could take days longer, according to Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

To understand how markets are absorbing all this, I'm joined by Ben Kumar, head of equity strategy at seven investment management in London. Ben, good morning.

Good morning. So there was some cautious optimism. I think it's fair to say yesterday in global markets after President Trump suggested a framework agreement was near.

How would you describe how global markets are we acting today? So when it comes to the negotiations,

it's like all of these tiny sticking points. That is where you really start to see whether

there is something happening. So, I mean,

I am going to need to see the ink dry on this, and I'm going to need to see ships moving through

the straight of Hormuz like they used to for a considerable period of time before I really

believe that this is going to stick. And what are the moves today that we're seeing, whether it's in European

stock indexes or the oil prices, that help us understand about, I guess, the wait and see

attitude that investors are taking? Well, partly we've got the problem of public holidays. So the

UK off yesterday, the US off yesterday, Europe open. So Europe had a good

day yesterday and then it's giving some of it back today. When I look at Brent crude today, I think

we're still in wait and sea mode. You have to see ships start to transit through the straight,

without any tolls, without any fuss, without any transponders off. You need to see evidence that the supply chains are working before people will really start to believe that there is change.

And European Union officials on your side of the world, warning that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens maybe by the end of this week, perhaps people should expect oil and gas prices higher through

next year? I think they're trying to prepare the world for higher inflation, which I do think

you will see come through, particularly in food prices related to ammonia and fertilized and not

going through the straight of all moves ahead of planting season. But I honestly, if the oil price

were 50% lower in a year time or 50% higher,

I think it's really difficult to say right now. I don't know how they can say that with any confidence.

Ben Kumar, head of equity strategy at 7 Investment Management in London. Thank you so much for joining us.

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