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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Did the Fed Just Acknowledge the Deposit Crisis?

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 March 2023

⏱️ 67 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Federal Reserve unanimously hiked interest rates by a quarter point today, continuing its fight against inflation while acknowledging concern for the apparently delicate U.S. banking system. So where does that leave investors from here? This episode is sponsored by KraneShares’s KRBN EFT is the 1st, largest and most liquid carbon ETF. Please read prospectus before investing at https://rvtv.io/krbn Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KRBN is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO). Disclaimer: Carefully consider the Funds’ investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Funds' full and summary prospectus, which may be obtained by visiting www.kraneshares.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey everyone, today's real vision daily briefing is sponsored by Crane Shares.

0:05.8

Learn about their KRBN ETF at CraneShares.com forward slash KRBN.

0:13.2

Now to the top analysis of today's markets.

0:30.0

My name is Stanley Astino, your very own Chewbacca of macro and I'm with you for the next 60 minutes where we will digest the recent press conference with Jay Powell.

0:41.2

And with me in the studio today, I have a great friend of mine, but also a great analyst, Michael Cuba, welcome to the show.

0:50.8

Hey Andrea, thanks for having me.

0:53.0

You're welcome and you obviously watched the press conference as I did.

0:58.6

You said to me just before we went on air here that you considered it's less hawkish, but not a dovish pivot. What do you mean by that?

1:07.6

Yeah, so you know it was interesting because I thought Powell clearly tried to separate obviously the monetary policy aspect right with the tools with the rate hikes.

1:20.6

Up versus, you know, sort of the financial stability, which is, you know, as I mentioned the discount window and the new program they have there.

1:27.6

So, you know, I thought he actually went a long way in terms of, you know, highlighting the stronger data.

1:34.6

He did give us slight nod in terms of, you know, there is a possibility those were seasonally driven.

1:40.6

But, you know, I think the fact that he highlighted the continued strength in the data while saying that it was still kind of uncertain what the banking issues would have kind of, you know, threaded that needle in terms of not being hawkish, but not outright coming across as dovish.

2:00.6

Michael, if we look at the market reaction to, first of all, the press release and then the conference after that, it was kind of a roller coaster.

2:08.6

The initial reaction was positive for equities, we dollar, but after that it was up and down, up and down, up and down through the press conference and S of late in the conference.

2:20.6

We actually ended up with a pretty solid mood in, for example, NASDAQ. So, what do you make of the price actions surrounding the press conference and the remarks from Paul here?

2:30.6

Yeah, it's funny that you say that because it was basically kind of what you and I were just discussing in terms of, you know, he had a few little nuggets of information in there that sounded, you know, like he was kind of dovish, but then, you know, in a question like someone asking, you know, does your dot plot and fur tie your hands to further.

2:49.6

The rate hikes and he said, absolutely not. And so I think, you know, the market was sort of oscillating back and forth of, he's dovish, oh, wait, no, maybe they're not really backing off.

2:59.6

And so, you know, if you look across the board, you know, if you step back from the fluctuations and kind of look where we settled at least here in the afternoon, it still has a dovish tilt to things.

3:10.6

Yeah, you're looking at rates lower pretty much all across the curve. You're looking at gold, you know, still sell the higher the dollars off. And so there isn't a lot to point at, you know, I like to sort of sit back and look at all the different asset classes during these things and focus less on the headlines and try to parse the language myself.

3:29.6

And look for sort of those canaries in the coal mine to say, well, wait a second, maybe this isn't as dovish or hawkish as as equities are saying.

3:37.6

And there's really not a lot of things. If anything, standing out to me so far today.

...

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