Despite Higher GDP, U.S. Economic Data Continues to Disappoint: Episode 26
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 26 November 2014
⏱️ 28 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Missing expectations on all economic indicators
* Chicago Fed index .14
* PMI flash services 56.3
* Dallas Fed Manufacturing 10.5
* Case Shiller Index slows down to 4.9%
* Consumer Confidence number down to 88.7M
* Oil prices continue to fall
* Big drop in Richmond Fed 75% below estimate
* Optimism fueled by debt, consumption and bubbles
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | About Peter Schiff Show |
| 0:07.0 | Yesterday the government reported a surprise upward revision to the original estimate for |
| 0:16.1 | third quarter GDP. |
| 0:18.5 | The first estimate was 3.5%, and pretty much everybody was looking for a downward revision. |
| 0:24.5 | The consensus was down to 3.3%, some estimates were as low as 3%. |
| 0:29.5 | Even personally I thought maybe we would have come in just below 3%. |
| 0:33.9 | The reason was all of the economic data that had been released since the first estimate |
| 0:39.3 | was way below expectations, way below what the government statisticians had used when |
| 0:45.7 | they were preparing their original estimate. |
| 0:47.7 | So since the data that we actually had was not as good as what was anticipated at the |
| 0:52.8 | time of the estimate it made sense that they would have to make a downward revision. |
| 0:58.6 | Instead they pretty much upperly revised just about every category so that now according |
| 1:04.9 | to the government GDP increased at 3.9% for the third quarter. |
| 1:11.2 | Now it's still below the fourth quarter but a solid number. |
| 1:14.8 | So two back-to-back big numbers when you averaged in with the minus 2.1 I guess from the |
| 1:19.8 | first quarter I think now we're on an annual pace of 2% for the entire year. |
| 1:27.7 | Now I'm still scratching my head at this revision. |
| 1:32.3 | They're going to revise it again. |
| 1:34.6 | So who knows maybe they'll make a downward revision the last time they do it. |
| 1:40.0 | And I still anticipate that the fourth quarter is going to be significantly below not only |
| 1:45.9 | the third quarter but below the expectations because not only has all the economic data |
| 1:52.6 | or almost all of it been weak. |
... |
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