Definitive Election Modeling Episode

Bet The Process

Sports

4 • 626 Ratings

🗓️ 23 October 2024

⏱️ 58 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week on Bet the Process, things get political with Dan Rosenheck, the Data Editor at the Economist. Topics discussed include potential betting opportunities for the election, the reliability of prediction models, and recent shifts in polling data. Jeff and Rufus also give college football picks.

Transcript

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0:00.0	On this week's Bet the Process podcast, we get political.
0:03.6	We bring Dan Rosenheck in from The Economist, and we talk a lot about models and, you know,
0:09.0	the elections versus polymarkets versus election markets.
0:14.1	We do a little trip through college, and we do a little bit on Survivors.
0:18.6	So with that, let's start the process.
0:24.0	Bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet the process.
0:28.7	Bet the process. Welcome to the podcast. Bet the process. It's not the typical cookie
0:35.4	cutter nonsense. If you came just for for picks you're in the wrong place front
0:38.3	It's how with the narrative to make a strong case instead of blindly assuming a team must be tanking
0:43.3	We're looking for the edge of messy P body rankings crunching all the numbers in the simulator system
0:48.3	That break down the data analytically driven media coverage
0:52.3	Sports gambling is pathetic
0:53.3	Welcome to another episode about the process podcast.
0:57.2	Sorry, we were off last week.
0:58.7	This is like, I feel like we should be, what, plus point whatever in the rating system for our biweek?
1:05.3	Like, we should be better than we are.
1:07.2	Point, what's a byword?
1:08.5	Do we get one by week in the NFL season?
1:11.4	This is how it works.
1:12.5	Yeah, but that means we actually should be better this week, not worse, right, which we likely
1:16.8	were.
1:16.9	Oh, yeah, we're coming off the buy week.
	...

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