Deep Dive into DVOA, EPA, and Why Packers Outrank Bears
Packernet Podcast: Daily Green Bay Packers Podcast
AC Sports
4.7 • 524 Ratings
🗓️ 2 December 2025
⏱️ 70 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Dive deep into why advanced NFL metrics like DVOA, EPA, and Massey-Peabody ratings paint the Packers as clearly superior to the Bears, despite Chicago's flashy record. Host Ryan Schlipp nerds out on team variability, opponent adjustments, and why wins aren't everything in evaluating true quality. Tease the controversy: Are the Bears a legit threat or just riding luck?
- Exploring game-to-game variability and why no team is consistent, using the Panthers' wild DVOA swings as a prime example.
- Breaking down key metrics: Packers rank top-5 in DVOA and EPA, while Bears hover around 19th-21st, closer to a 6-win team.
- Debunking record-based hype with Vegas spreads, success rates, and predictive models that favor Green Bay by 6.5 points.
- Discussing the flaws and strengths of stats, plus why "any given Sunday" doesn't invalidate data-driven analysis.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Ladies and gentlemen, welcome once again to the Packernet Podcast. |
| 0:12.3 | I am your host and resident fanalyst, as always, Ryan Schlipp. |
| 0:15.8 | Check us out online Packernet.com. |
| 0:17.8 | Find me on Twitterpack underscore. |
| 0:19.8 | That app. |
| 0:25.0 | All right. Today, at least in part, |
| 0:30.0 | because I don't know how long it's going to take. I want to kind of nerd out a little bit. |
| 0:36.4 | It's one of those things where something comes up and it just kind of sparks something in my brain and I start exploring and I think, |
| 0:38.5 | why don't I just do this for the podcast? Because I, first of all, I have to get started because |
| 0:42.5 | time is a ticking as I'm sitting here just theorizing. Well, what if I did this? What if this happened? |
| 0:47.9 | Well, what about this? Well, how do you do that? Blah, blah, blah. I think at its core is some pretty |
| 0:53.2 | basic things. And I know that can be maybe for some people kind of an eye roll. |
| 1:02.6 | And so it's kind of, there's kind of two reasons. |
| 1:04.8 | Number one, people do need to hear this. |
| 1:07.2 | It's just the reality. |
| 1:08.3 | Some people, you know, it's kind of like I've done before in the past. This would be something similar, but not quite, with PFF where it's like, you know, I'll kind of do a PFF thing. And then I'll say, but I know it's not for everyone. As though it's equally valid to say it's useless as it is to say it's useful. And that's incorrect. We can prove that it's useful, |
| 1:28.8 | et cetera, et cetera. And obviously Bears fans are just complete idiots and that's where this |
| 1:35.2 | whole thing started. I mean, they are the dumbest fan base. I mean, everybody's got their weird |
| 1:39.4 | things. Packer fans have their weird things. I can't really see it from the outside looking in, |
| 1:43.4 | but I can see it from the inside looking in. Vikings fans have their things. Lions fans have their weird things. I can't really see it from the outside looking in, but I can see it from the inside looking in. |
| 1:45.6 | Vikings fans have their things. Lions fans have their things, like with the refs and everything. |
| 1:50.1 | Bears fans are just stupid. I mean, I was in the U-46 school system. I understand. I get it. |
... |
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