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The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Dallas Cowboys 2022 NFL Sports Betting Preview

The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Adam Chernoff

Football, Sports

4.81.3K Ratings

🗓️ 24 August 2022

⏱️ 13 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx 

Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23 

Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)


1. In 2021 the Dallas Cowboys had an insane outlier of the season on the defensive side of the football. Not only did they lead the league in takeaways and turnover differential, the value they gained in EPA off the turnovers was as high as any team that is tracked in the places I looked.

2. Takeaways are extremely difficult to replicate, and not sustainable year to year. The Cowboys despite the defensive fortune still allowed 350 yards per game which ranked below average in the league. 

3. Much of their success came against favorable QB's as well. More than half of their wins were against non-starters are QB no longer in the league. Much of their success came within the division which goes a long way to skewing their strength of schedule in 2022. 

4. With the defense very likely to regress, the focus shifts to the offense which lost many pieces. The OL is a lot weaker than it has been in years past, Amari Cooper is out, Gallup is still hurt and Washington is out to begin the year. Skill position is decimated. It is likely we see much more running in 2022. 

5. Overall the Cowboys are a team to sell. Whether you want to bet the full season unders, win totals or just fade them often week to week, this team is set to fall back despite their price point being higher this year, than last. 

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Good morning, everybody. Today is Wednesday, August 24th, and it is one day away from a very

0:07.3

fun weekend beginning tomorrow at Circus Sports in Las Vegas. The itinerary is starting to take shape.

0:15.7

Friday morning, 5.30 a.m. live in studio with Mitch and Polly. I already got the email from Polly giving me the

0:23.6

breakdown of what we're going to look at and it's going to be a lot of fun. So that's first thing in

0:28.5

the morning Friday, Vesen. Friday night, Barr Canada, Derek Stevens, the Circa team, and I believe

0:36.4

everyone else from the panel, it's going to be at Bar Canada.

0:40.6

There is a meet and greet with the important folks there.

0:44.4

I'll be somewhere on the side opening beers for everybody else.

0:47.8

And so if you are interested in watching some NFL preseason, I'll be heading over to Bar Canada around about 7 o'clock on Friday night.

0:57.1

So I will see everybody there. Saturday morning, this is going to be a lot of fun.

1:01.6

There is going to be a live release show or two somewhere within Circa. Have to figure out exactly

1:09.3

what that's going to look like, waiting on the exact location

1:12.4

details as well.

1:14.0

But I'll be sure to let everybody know.

1:16.1

At a minimum, the release shows will be on that morning.

1:19.2

And then everyone else can follow, meet up in the sports book and watch for the entirety

1:23.5

of the day.

1:24.5

And there's going to be a open bar at Stadium Swim for anyone who signs up

1:29.3

for the full house of contests in the Circa Million and the Circa Survivor. So I'll be over there as

1:35.6

well. Again, I don't know how they're putting me at an open bar before a panel at 4 p.m. with

1:41.1

Brian Erlacker, Sean King, Chris Bennett, myself, and then Mike Palm hosting.

1:46.3

We're previewing everything for the NFL season, and there'll be plenty of games to follow

...

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