Daily Covid and Markets - Thursday August 13

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Investing, Monetary Policy, Estate Planning, Business, Dividend Growth Investing, Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Macro Economics

4.9 • 572 Ratings

🗓️ 13 August 2020

⏱️ 11 minutes

🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS

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Summary

The market dropped 80 points today though at one point was down ~200 points before rallying over half of the ddrop back in the final hour of trading. The weekly jobless claims came in below one million (963,000 to be precise), below the symbolic million mark for the first time since the COVID moment began, and well below the 1.1 million expectation. Continuing claims came in at 15.5 million, down 604,000 from last week. The numbers aren’t “good” – but they are “getting better” – and they are “getting better more than expected” …

COVID Health Information • It certainly is reasonable that there are differing opinions as to “where” the herd immunity threshold may be reached, and whether one believes it is a lower number or higher number, the “variable” that sits in the middle is T-cell immunity which is a somewhat unknown component in getting to the total number. Nobel laureate and Stanford Professor, Michael Levitt, has been an incredible resource throughout this whole affair, and has provided the most reliable forecasts thus far about “excess mortalities” and other key measures. He has placed the herd immunity threshold at 15-20% (though again, others place it much higher, with varying differences as to where the T-cell immunity level sits in the equation). The University of Oxford study has placed the number closer to 25%, again, because of exposures many have already had to other coronaviruses, as well as what immunity exists from natural (t-cell) resistance.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.
0:12.8	Hello and welcome to today's COVID and markets podcast brought to you by Dividend Cafe of the Bonson Group.
0:19.3	This is David Bonson and I am bringing you our Thursday
0:22.3	omissive. The market is closed. We have a bulk of our reporting data, and I'm going to give you all
0:28.5	the update that I can and welcome all of your questions, thoughts at COVID at the Bonsongroup.com.
0:35.5	Market dropped 80 points today.
0:37.8	It was down at one point about 200 and rallied over half of that back in the final hour of trading.
0:45.4	S&P down a little bit.
0:46.9	NASDAQ was actually up.
0:49.3	But this morning, the weekly jobless claims came in below $1 million.
0:55.1	It was $963,000. so just a tad below a million and this was the first time
1:01.2	since the COVID moment began and it was well below the 1.1 million that was
1:06.3	expected continuing claims came in at 15 and a half million which was down over 600,000 from last week.
1:14.4	So the numbers are not good, but they are getting better and they're getting better more than
1:21.4	expected. So two parts of good news, one part of bad news there. A good trajectory, a lot to be thinking about.
1:30.3	Listen, there's a good portion of the content today at COVID-a-markets.com
1:34.3	centers around some more discussion on herd immunity.
1:38.3	And there's a lot of reports out there.
1:40.3	There is a paper that I make available for those who request it, a new medical journal on the subject.
1:49.6	And it's not something that I think is a deep dive is not something I think would be appropriate in COVIDomarkets.com where, of course, my focus is primarily on the impact of the COVID moment into markets, investments,
2:03.7	and the economy at large.
2:05.6	And yet, I do believe that there is a broad construction of the conversation that's useful for people to have.
	...

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