Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, May 19
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 19 May 2020
⏱️ 22 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
The market was down 100 points or so in pre-market at 3:15am today, and stayed close to flat or modestly down until the open. It bounced a round a bit, then found the flat line and stayed there most of the day, before then seeing a substantial sell-off in the last 45 minutes of trading (see chart below). A report circulated just before the market sell-off that yesterday’s positive report on early phase vaccine trials may have been incomplete in some of its data. If that was indeed the reason for the sell-off, then these markets are a lot more susceptible to pops and drops around [silly?] vaccine headlines than I would have thought.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and |
| 0:07.3 | dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Hello and welcome to today's COVID and markets missive brought to you by the Dividend |
| 0:17.7 | Cafe. This is David Bonson, Chief investment officer here at the Bonson Group. |
| 0:22.8 | And kind of an interesting day in markets, you know, coming off of that massive rally, |
| 0:28.5 | nearly a thousand points yesterday on Monday. |
| 0:31.6 | And then today the market, when I got up about 3.15 this morning, |
| 0:34.8 | the market futures were down 100 points. |
| 0:36.8 | And they kind of stayed there. |
| 0:38.9 | It went flat down 100 right in that range for a few hours. And we dropped a bit at the open and then kind of |
| 0:46.3 | came back and really stayed pretty close to the flat line most of the day. And then in the last 45 minutes |
| 0:53.6 | of trading, market started selling off and closed near the lows of the day. And then in the last 45 minutes of trading, market started selling off and closed |
| 0:56.8 | near the lows of the day down about 350, 400 points. And I believe that most of that has got to be |
| 1:05.3 | related to this report that came out right around that time indicating that some of the positive indications of a vaccine |
| 1:12.4 | yesterday may have had some incomplete data and that although the numbers, the data points and |
| 1:20.1 | testing results from this phase one trial don't look bad. There are still possible, |
| 1:26.5 | there's still, you know, work to be done. |
| 1:28.5 | I read the report that came out today and it didn't say anything that I thought we didn't |
| 1:35.1 | already know, but I don't know. I'll reiterate my point that the market doesn't need a reason to |
| 1:41.1 | rally, doesn't need a reason to sell off because markets are markets. |
| 1:50.5 | And if it is true that the lion's share of that thousand points yesterday and the lion's share of today's 350 points or whatever is related to vaccine headlines, then I guess just expect the market to be more vulnerable to short-term headline moves around vaccine than I would have thought. |
| 2:03.7 | That may settle at some point here. |
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