Daily Covid and Markets - Monday August 3
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 3 August 2020
⏱️ 11 minutes
🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS
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Summary
COVID Health Information
• There is discussion of testing coming down in the last few days and it will be useful for validation of case reductions and so forth if the testing does not slow down – for the case declines to be accompanied to steady or growing testing, not reduced testing. The best way to measure that is in the positivity rate, of course.
• Much of the testing reduction, though, appears to be related to the hurricane near Florida. I elaborate on Florida data below in the F.A.C.T. section.
• The data point that is most disconnected from testing, the result lag problem, and even mortality reporting is Hospitalizations. Nothing drives policy decisions more than hospitalizations. If by the end of this week we continue to see hospitalizations and ICU’s declining, regardless of testing and cases, I believe we will see some of the more onerous restrictions start to be lifted as August kicks into full gear.
• The International Journal of Infectious Diseases has published a study evaluating data in Japan to evaluate the effectiveness of school closures in limiting transmission of coronavirus. The report is a tough but brilliant read, and ultimately concludes that school closure was not an effective policy act in constraining transmission.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Hello and welcome to today's COVID and markets podcast brought to you by the Dividend Cafe of the Bonson Group. |
| 0:20.1 | I hope you have all had a wonderful weekend or now into the new week and the new month. |
| 0:26.1 | And Monday, August 3rd is behind us. |
| 0:28.5 | The market was up close to 250 points today. |
| 0:31.5 | The two major well-known tech companies of the Dow were driving a lot of that move higher. |
| 0:38.7 | A familiar theme with other tech moves driving S&P and NASDAQ higher, but today the standouts |
| 0:45.4 | in the Dow kind of had their day in the sun. |
| 0:48.1 | And the overall market action was pretty constructive in a broad sense as well. |
| 0:53.1 | You know, the basic framework right now is that there has been very limited breadth in the most |
| 1:01.2 | recent run-up, primarily in, you know, a couple of these big tech companies. |
| 1:06.8 | Today we got a little bit more breadth, but overall, I think the framework has continued to be a real |
| 1:15.3 | breakdown between the rest of the market, the average stock in the market, and these three or four |
| 1:23.1 | or five major tech companies. So continuing to watch that, but in the meantime, today, a positive |
| 1:28.9 | day. We'll break into the COVID health side of things and, and then kind of go around the horn real |
| 1:35.2 | quick and wrap it up. Unfortunately, I'm going quickly just because I have a dinner appointment |
| 1:42.5 | to get to, but I do want to get you the data that you are listening for. |
| 1:47.4 | There has been some discussion, and for a good reason, about some testing levels coming down in the last few days. |
| 1:53.7 | I think part of it, I mean, certainly you can see, like, as I'm going to mention in a moment, Florida's testing was way down, |
| 1:59.6 | as obviously the hurricane issues, |
| 2:01.4 | weather-related issues. You've got to believe there's some people not going out and getting |
| 2:04.9 | tested when they're potentially having to evacuate their homes or whatnot around the hurricane |
... |
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