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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Daily Briefing-Sep 3, 2020-The Hidden Forces Behind the Market Panic - w/ Raoul Pal and Ash Bennington

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 4 September 2020

⏱️ 47 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on a week of extreme price action. They analyze the dramatic crash of U.S. equities on Thursday and its connection to the speculative activity in derivatives markets. After weighing the significance of Softbank’s unmasking as the big “NASDAQ Whale” that has been buying a massive amount of calls on big tech stocks, Raoul and Ash have a broader discussion about how volatility regimes evolve and bleed into each other. Raoul then provides a strategic update on his “unfolding” thesis, shares his thoughts on Europe, and explores the possibility of a W-shaped recession. Finally, Raoul and Ash discuss the “Festival of Learning” that Real Vision hosted this week, as well as give a sneak peek of Real Vision’s new community feature, “The Exchange.” In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash discuss today’s jobs report and look at market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Friday, September 4th, 2020, just after market close in New York. This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing. I'm Ash Bennington in New York

0:15.2

joined shortly by our CEO and co-founder, Raul. But first, I sit down with Jack Farley

0:22.1

for an unscripted introduction.

0:23.7

Jack let's jump right in.

0:25.0

Sell off yesterday, lots of volatility today.

0:27.4

What do you make of the NFP numbers this morning?

0:29.8

Oh yeah, well, the non-farm payrolls, they came in at about 1.4 million just above the expected number.

0:38.8

So that was good, not great.

0:40.9

The real news of the day, as you know, is that the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% and that was well, well below what was expected, which was 9.8%.

0:51.0

And that's, you know, way way down down from the I think 14.7% we were in April so it's a good

0:58.8

headline the you six rate the under employment rate that decreased from 16.5% to 14.2% so I found that

1:07.5

interesting what what did you make of that ash? Yeah alternative measures of

1:11.0

labor under utilization.

1:12.5

When this becomes a cocktail party topic of discussion,

1:15.4

it definitely shows the labor market is under stress.

1:17.9

Yeah, so the jobs market, the market continued to plunge today.

1:22.3

So it wasn't received that well. Obviously everyone is

1:26.4

following the tape following the ticker and I am as well but one thing I was

1:31.7

reading a note of Charlie McEliot and he described it as the

1:36.7

tail wagging the dog and I think that's a great way of putting it because you know one

1:40.6

thing that I've been noticing and other people like

1:42.8

Jason Buck and Mike Green and Rall have been noticing is that the Vix has been

...

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