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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Daily Briefing - June 8, 2020

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 8 June 2020

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison map out their framework for the rest of 2020. Ed and Ash look at the steepening yield curve and the continued ascent of U.S. equities. Ed gives additional color to his macro thesis and reflects on his bullish call in April on Europe’s re-opening. Ed and Ash also look forward to the upcoming interviews with Michael Howell and Darius Dale. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the rising tensions between Germany and the ECB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Monday,

0:02.0

Monday,

0:03.0

June. It's Monday, June 8th, 2020, just after market close in New York.

0:17.0

This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:19.0

I'm Ash Bennington in New York, joined shortly by Ed Harrison from Washington DC but first

0:24.9

here's Jack Farley with the stories driving markets. Thanks Ash. US equities

0:30.3

continue to march upwards in a descent that won't seem to end.

0:33.6

The S&P 500 is now within 1% of where it began the year in January

0:38.2

and shockingly every single stock in the index is up since the lows on March 23rd, every single one.

0:45.2

But stocks aren't the only way investors are betting on a V-shaped recovery.

0:48.9

Morgan Stanley announced in a note on Friday its wager on a significant steepening of the U.S. yield curve.

0:54.6

The report cited a correlation between the dot plot and the 30-year one-month

0:58.9

spread, noting that yields tend to compress as the target rate goes lower.

1:02.6

So it's essentially an anti-TOLT trade.

1:04.8

It'll be interesting to see how that plays out going forward.

1:06.9

Speaking of bonds, spread between German buns and the sovereign bonds of Italy, Spain, and Greece

1:12.1

have narrowed significantly in light of the European Central

1:14.9

Bank's announcement of sustained stimulus. But while the ECB's generous bailout package has

1:19.3

tempered the bond markets of Southern Europe, it's provoked fears in the north of inflation and moral hazard.

1:25.5

Several prominent German economists have come out denouncing the ECB package, arguing that ECB

1:31.3

President Christine Lagarde is taking on a huge risk by doubling down on stimulus,

1:36.4

while the money supply is at the highest point it's been since the launch of the euro.

...

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