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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Daily Briefing - July 27, 2020 - Dollar Strength is Off the Table Now: Ed Harrison

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 27 July 2020

⏱️ 32 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Ed Harrison, to break down the recent price action in gold and bitcoin, and to analyze the health of the U.S. economy as COVID-19 continues to spread. Ash and Ed also consider how the dollar continues to weaken and where rates are headed, as well as speculate on what the next iteration of US fiscal policy will shape up to be. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the plumbing of the gold market. Sponsor Link - Keep Coming Back : http://keepcomingbackpodcast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Monday, July 27, 2020, just after market closed in New York. This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:14.8

I'm Ash Bennington from New York, joined shortly by Ed Harrison from Washington, D.C.

0:20.3

But first, here's Jack Farley with today's stories.

0:23.4

Thanks Ash. The rally in gold continued today with the precious metal up

0:27.5

over 1.8% in dollars, standing at 1936 as at the time of this filming.

0:32.4

This marks a significant melt-up in gold,

0:34.6

which is up over 9% over the past month and over 30% since its lows in mid-March.

0:40.3

This is an all-time record for gold in absolute terms, although adjusting for inflation,

0:45.5

gold is nowhere close to where it was during the 1980 rally. That rally occurred as real yields hit an all-time low,

0:52.0

meaning that inflation was not just devouring all interest payments on treasuries,

0:56.1

but it was taking a significant bite out of the principle as well.

0:59.7

In her expert view, Lynn Alden discusses why gold performs so well when real yields are negative.

1:05.7

That comes out tomorrow, so stay tuned.

1:07.8

Lynn also looks at M2 per capita as a relevant metric, since investors flock to gold as a safe haven as the money supply

1:14.8

expands. So with negative real yields and the Fed committing to expanding M2 for at

1:19.3

least the next year, there's definitely an interesting macro backdrop for gold, but there are also some interesting

1:25.1

flow dynamics that are flashing even more bullish signals. Looking at the futures market,

1:29.7

open interest isn't as high as it's been during other rallies, indicating that it isn't speculation in the

1:35.2

futures markets that's driving gold sky high. No, there's actually a tremendous demand for

1:39.9

physical gold, from family offices to hedge funds to retail investors, to ETS like GLD that have

1:46.0

seen massive inflows and have to buy physical gold to balance out their NAV.

1:50.6

And then look at this chart of how many futures contracts are actually being converted into physical

...

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