Daily Briefing – August 17, 2020 – Goldman’s S&P Target By No Means Out of the Question: Max Wiethe

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

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🗓️ 17 August 2020

⏱️ 35 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by editor, Max Wiethe, to talk gold, stocks, housing, and New York. After Ash analyzes the dismal Empire Manufacturing reading, he and Max discuss the NAHB housing number and explore what it means for the future of New York as professionals flee big cities for the safety of the suburbs. Ash and Max then interpret Goldman Sachs' increase of its price target for the S&P 500, which leads into a discussion of the future of U.S. equities more broadly. Lastly, Ash and Max discuss the case for and against precious metals and emphasize understanding both sides of the trade. In the intro, Jack explores dislocations in the U.S. housing market, looks at Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Barrick Gold Corp, and gives a sneak peak for Tuesday and Wednesday for Real Vision's "Precious Metals Week." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	It's Monday, August 17, 2020, just after market closed in New York. This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing. I'm Ash Bennington in New York.
0:15.7	Ed Harrison is on vacation. I'm joined shortly by Max Weefee. But first, with the day's stories, Jack Farley.
0:23.4	Thanks, Ash.
0:24.4	Japan's GDP plummeted by 7.8% last quarter.
0:27.6	Annualized, this comes out to a 27.8% drop.
0:30.8	This is the biggest decline since the beginning of the data set.
0:34.0	The New York Fed didn't have great news either.
0:36.0	Its Empire Manufacturing survey came in at just 3.7, well below the 15 flat expected by economists.
0:42.0	The one saving grace in the data releases today below the 15 flat expected by economists.
0:42.6	The one saving grace in the data releases today
0:45.0	is the National Association of Home Builders Market Index,
0:48.2	which stands at 78, matching the record of December 1998.
0:52.5	Demand for new homes is robust.
0:54.3	This rosy headline picture is getting talked about a lot,
0:57.0	but one data set that's not getting as much buzz
0:59.6	is the mortgage delinquency rate from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which now stands at 8.22 percent,
1:05.7	nearing the highs seen during the financial crisis. What's even more remarkable is that the foreclosure
1:10.3	rate continues to decline. It's indicative of the federal moratorium on foreclosures.
1:14.7	The thing is that the delinquency rate and the foreclosures normally move together,
1:19.2	they're correlated, and this makes sense because the foreclosure rate is basically a derivative of the delinquency rate.
1:25.0	But that has changed. Foreclosures have stalled even as delinquencies approach 2010 levels.
1:30.0	The moratorium on foreclosures keeps on getting rolled over.
	...

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