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More or Less

Cybermetrics and Groundhog Day

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 17 February 2012

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Can you measure your popularity – or that of anyone or anything – by the number of results that an internet search generates? Tim Harford points the finger at lazy journalists. Plus, a professor of economics assesses the accuracy of a groundhog’s weather forecasts, made famous by the Hollywood film Groundhog Day. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Thank you for downloading from the BBC.

0:04.0

The details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use go to

0:08.0

BBCWorldService.com slash podcasts.

0:12.0

You're listening to a download from the BBC.

0:16.0

This is more or less the mathematical icing on the cake of life.

0:20.0

We make an edition of the programme for BBC Radio 4,

0:24.0

but this is a download of a special edition broadcast on the World Service.

0:28.0

Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service.

0:32.0

We're your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life, and I'm Tim Halford.

0:36.0

This week it's Groundhog Day. Again.

0:40.0

As I look at the crowd on Gobler's knob,

0:44.0

many shadows do I see.

0:48.0

Six more weeks of winner it must be.

0:52.0

We put the famed weather predicting prowess of a North American movie star

0:56.0

Groundhog to the statistical test.

1:00.0

But first, a listener writes.

1:02.0

I'm still seeing articles quoting Google search numbers as some kind of indicator

1:06.0

for the extent or popularity of a topic.

1:08.0

Is there any justification for using these numbers?

1:12.0

This is the kind of thing they're talking about.

1:14.0

A quick online search of essay writing services returns more than 31 million hits.

1:20.0

Clearly, these businesses are thriving.

...

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