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The Dividend Cafe

Cutting through the Noise to the Sobering Truth

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Wealth Management, Investing, Monetary Policy, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Business, Retirement Planning, Macro Economics

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 12 January 2024

⏱️ 22 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48Sg4um

Before I get into this week’s wild fun Dividend Cafe on the subject of government debt, I want to make sure I do one final push around the Year Ahead, Year Behind White Paper that we published last Monday. Because of its depth and length, I imagine some of you printed the chart-filled PDF and plan to digest it this weekend. So don’t worry – if today’s Dividend Cafe is coming on top of your white paper reading, I assure you the data I cover this week about our fiscal position in America will not be going stale in the days ahead!

But now we re-dive into the standard Friday routine of our weekly Dividend Cafe. And this week’s is a very cheery one, if you are cheered up by massive government spending and debt (hey, “we’re all Keynesians now,” right?). A fundamental component of our macroeconomic view going out ten years and longer is a belief in an internal tension in the American economy – that is, the extraordinary engine of growth and innovation that the greatest Western democracy the world has ever seen is and has been for 250 years, VERSUS the significant headwinds for growth created by excessive government indebtedness. The story is more nuanced than that, and I will get into those nuances and more in this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Don’t think of this week’s Dividend Cafe as a position paper on how to solve for the national debt. It is not a policy paper, but rather a reaffirmation presentation of the state of affairs. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:10.0

Hello and welcome to the Dividendon Cafe in a lot of ways.

0:16.0

It's the first kind of normal Dividendon Cafe of 2024. I do want to do my reminder that earlier in the week,

0:24.9

we released our special Dividendon Cafe annual year ahead, year behind what we call our white

0:31.9

paper. It's available at Dividendant Cafe.com. The video of me walking through it is available at our YouTube channel.

0:39.9

The podcast has that audio there. I think if you want to go to the website, download the PDF.

0:47.4

There's about 20 different charts and everything kind of walking you through what

0:53.0

2023 was and our perspectives going into

0:56.3

2024. So as we're still early enough in the new year and I'm still trying to make sure that

1:04.8

the labor that goes into that project is not in vain. I want to continue mentioning its availability.

1:13.9

But we are moving on to this first normal div cafe. And as markets kind of peter around a little bit after the massively

1:19.7

successful November, December that they enjoyed, I want to go to a little bit more sobering of a topic,

1:26.6

which is a longer term and more structural,

1:31.5

as opposed to the shorter term and more cyclical issues that a lot of people love talking about,

1:38.1

that is government debt, particularly federal government debt.

1:43.6

I could and probably should do a dividend

1:46.5

cafe one of these days about state and local debt. We talk about our governmental debt only in

1:54.4

the context of federal debt all the time, and I'm about do the same thing here today, when in reality,

1:59.4

if you want to view it across the

2:01.3

body politic, you have to actually include municipal debt as well to paint the full picture of how

2:07.7

many future resources are already spoken for in terms of city, county, state, and then federal

2:15.3

obligations. But to make things a little simpler and avoid, let's just say,

...

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