Crypto Markets Efficient?

Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

Don McDonald

Business, Education, Investing, How To

4.2 • 680 Ratings

🗓️ 3 June 2025

⏱️ 42 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom reluctantly return to the topic of Bitcoin, using its recent price spike to explore deeper questions about market efficiency, irrational investor behavior, and the legitimacy of crypto as an investment. With nods to Eugene Fama, Cliff Asness, and some well-aimed skepticism, the duo debates whether price reflects value or just hype. Alongside listener calls from California, Canada, and North Carolina, they address portfolio allocation, pension rollover strategies, and even debunk gold’s glitter as a bond replacement—punctuated by a truly explosive segment on “FartCoin.” Yes, really. 0:56 Tom and Don reluctantly dive into Bitcoin and crypto’s price spike 1:37 Are crypto markets truly efficient? Academia vs. reality 2:44 Price goes up because price went up? Questioning efficient market theory 4:17 Cliff Asness on how social media distorts collective investment judgment 6:23 Don restates the three ways to make money: work, luck, dishonesty 6:50 Harvard-style debate: Can markets be truly efficient? 8:24 Rational ignorance and emotional investing behavior 9:36 Fama says Bitcoin will go to zero within a decade 10:30 Dogecoin and meme coins: speculative absurdity vs. real purpose 12:06 Investment principles: Diversify, plan, ignore hype 13:51 Tom and Don are ‘contrary indicators’—Bitcoin jokes ensue 14:14 Call: Clinton in CA asks where to put pension payments he doesn’t need yet 16:13 Investment advice for 5-year+ horizon: high yield/cash/bond/stock mix 17:48 Tom’s wife builds a wheelbarrow, financial education “nonprofit” mailer 19:11 Crypto joke segment: FartCoin rises to $3.50… and the bad puns begin 22:02 Call: Jeff from Canada on gold returns vs. bond stability 24:24 Should gold be part of a diversified portfolio? Historical returns debunked 28:39 Gold bar nostalgia vs. investment logic 29:58 TRM T-shirt giveaway and gold vs. bonds as ‘cool’ vs. smart 31:30 Call: Zach in NC—Should he roll old 401(k) into state pension plan? 33:10 Breakdown of NC pension plan fund options and a 90/10 allocation strategy 36:03 Don signs up for a “non-sales” financial education class by an unlicensed guy 37:50 Red flags: financial advisor not registered anywhere, mystery deepens Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Oh, that's my prime delivery.
0:01.6	What, already?
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0:06.2	And that's the buzz of Prime's entertainment.
0:09.0	What are we watching?
0:09.7	Heads of state, that new action comedy with Idris Elber as the Prime Minister,
0:13.3	John Sina as the president, and Prianka Chopra Jonas,
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0:23.9	month join now content includes limited ads subscription or to renews for more information go to amazon
0:28.5	dot co dot uk slash prime reality radio for a really great future.
0:38.0	We're talking real money.
0:40.6	Welcome, once again, to Talking Real Money, and dare I say, one of our more exciting episodes.
0:47.2	Hello, everybody.
0:48.0	I'm Don McDonald, along with the Inimitable, because you can't possibly imitate him, Tom
0:52.8	Tom Cock, in the Model Military Aircraft Museum.
0:58.7	Wait, I was at the, I was at the pre-show meeting.
1:02.6	I don't think this is going to be one of our better shows.
1:04.6	Oh, that little thing we did?
1:05.6	I'll take your word for that.
1:06.4	Yeah, that wasn't much.
	...

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