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Science Quickly

Crustal Chemistry May Aid in Earthquake Prediction

Science Quickly

Scientific American

Science

4.2639 Ratings

🗓️ 25 September 2014

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Researchers say chemical changes in groundwater may someday be used to predict quakes four to six months in advance. Christopher Intagliata reports Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Understanding the human body is a team effort. That's where the Yachtel group comes in.

0:05.8

Researchers at Yachtolt have been delving into the secrets of probiotics for 90 years.

0:11.0

Yacold also partners with nature portfolio to advance gut microbiome science through the global grants for gut health, an investigator-led research program.

0:19.6

To learn more about Yachtolt, visit yawcult.co.

0:22.7

J-P. That's Y-A-K-U-L-T dot-C-O-J-P. When it comes to a guide for your gut, count on Yacolt.

0:33.4

This is Scientific American 60-second science. I'm Christopher in Taliatta. Got a minute?

0:39.7

Today's early warning systems for earthquakes give you, at most, a few minutes to prepare for the hit.

0:45.4

That's because today's systems rely on detecting the first early rumbles of an actual earthquake

0:49.8

before sending the alarm. Now researchers say that following the chemistry of groundwater could

0:55.6

sound a long-term quake alarm. They track samples from an artesian well in Iceland for five years

1:01.3

and identified changes in the ratios of hydrogen isotopes and a spike in sodium levels,

1:07.1

four to six months before two five-plus magnitude quakes. The chemical clues suggest mixing between groundwaters.

1:14.3

So the researchers deduce that rocks may be fracturing,

1:17.5

linking up underground aquifers before the quake.

1:20.5

The results are in the journal Nature Geoscience.

1:24.5

Investigations like this one have been plotting along for 40 years, and some studies, like one

1:29.4

following the deadly Kobe quake in 1995, have found similar correlations. But study author

1:35.7

Alistair Skelton, a professor of geochemistry at Stockholm University, says the unpredictable study

1:41.9

subject makes it tough to get funding.

1:48.1

Because you can in no way guarantee a result. So I get three years of money, but there's no earthquake, there's no result. And even if we do accumulate more results like this,

1:52.5

and researchers sound a six-month alarm, what next?

1:56.2

If we're going to ever predict earthquakes, we want something sort of intermediate term,

...

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