This is Scientific American 60 Second Science.

I'm Christopher in D'Alga.

Got a minute?

Today's early warning systems for earthquakes give you at most a few minutes to prepare for the hit. That's because today's systems

rely on detecting the first early rumbles of an actual earthquake before sending

the alarm. Now researchers say that following the chemistry of groundwater could sound a long-term quake alarm.

They track samples from an artesian well in Iceland for five years

and identified changes in the ratios of hydrogen isotopes,

and a spike in sodium levels,

four to six months before two five-plus magnitude quakes.

The chemical clues suggest mixing between groundwaters.

So the researchers deduce that rocks may be

fracturing, linking up underground aquifers before the quake. The results are in the

Journal Nature Geo Science. Investigations like this one have been plotting along for 40 years and some studies, like one following the deadly Kobe Quake in 1995, have found similar correlations.

But study author Alistair Skelton, a professor of Geochemistry at Stockholm University,

says the unpredictable study subject makes it tough to get funding.

Because you can in no way guarantee a result.

So I get three years of money, but there's no earthquake, there's no result.

And even if we do accumulate more results like this,

and researchers sound a six month alarm.

What next?

If we're going to ever predict earthquakes,

...