Michael Guyad runs the lead lag report on Seeking Alpha.

He writes on Twitter a lot, runs his own portfolio,

a lot of nuance and insight to be gained.

Yeah, my conviction around things is never around the mile marker.

It's always around the conditions, right,

that favors something happening.

I would go back to this idea that conditions favor probabilities,

they dictate the probabilities, probabilities, they dictate the

probabilities, probabilities dictate the outcome.

So you have to look at the the overarching dynamic in the background to sort of see

what is more likely or not, right, from a risk perspective. Now in July I was pretty

adamant in the idea that the market may have peaked in July as AI-Mania was at its

apex and I was basing that off of history. So when you look historically

going back to late 1920s and you look at different months where the S&P peaked for the year. 8.3% of the time stocks peak for the year in July.

Now that's not because it's one in 12, it just so happens to be one 12th.

But 8.3% of the time, you know historically, it's a non-zero probability that historically markets

tend to peak in July.

40% of the time they tend to peak in December for the year.

So it is true that there does tend to be that drift higher into the end of the year.

But in July I was saying, you know, you could very well be that we're in one of those 8.3% of the times in the calendar

because of the lagged effects of the fastest rate hike cycle in history.

Now I started the year saying I believe we have a melt-up scenario for equities,

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